Reality Check | TradeIntel

September 5, 2026

Weekly Scorecard: 74.3% of Calls Hit +50%

890 option buying ideas reached expiration in the week of August 31, 2026. 74.3% of the calls hit a 50% gain or better and 58.5% doubled, against 47.0% and 31.1% for puts. The full peak breakdown for the week.

September 4, 2026

LULU Gapped Down 19.40% on Q2 Earnings

LULU opened 19.40% lower the morning after its September 3, 2026 report, with VIX at 14.32. Only 7 of 77 earnings reactions since 2007 have gapped down between 15.52% and 23.28%, and the 6 prior ones ended a median of 12.43% higher 3 months on. An ordinary gap down is −3.70% by then.

September 3, 2026

SNOW Gapped Up 23.35% on Q2 Earnings

SNOW opened 23.35% higher the morning after its September 2, 2026 report, with VIX at 15.20. Only 3 of 24 earnings reactions since 2020 have gapped up between 18.68% and 28.02%, and the 2 prior ones ended a median of 10.18% lower 3 months on. An ordinary gap up is +2.78% by then.

September 3, 2026

The Volatility Risk Premium

The volatility risk premium is VIX minus how much the S&P 500 has really been moving. Across 4,890 sessions since 2007, a high reading came before VIX covering an 11.2 point range against 7.8 points on a typical day, and it held at every VIX level.

September 3, 2026

September Is a Below-Average Month for all 10 S&P 500 Sectors

September 2, 2026

History favors buying $DELL after a +8.7% post-earnings gap.

DELL opened 8.72% higher the morning after its September 1, 2026 report, with VIX at 16.34. Only 3 of 40 earnings reactions since 2016 have gapped up between 6.97% and 10.46%, and the 2 prior ones are positive at every time frame, a median of 11.38% higher 3 months on. An ordinary gap up is +10.60% by then.

September 2, 2026

11 of the 13 Leveraged ETFs We Tested Decay Less in September

Measured against its own average month, September is stronger for 11 of the 13 ETFs we tested, by a median of 3.52 points. Each ETF is measured only against its own history. The gap between individual ETFs is large. DUST runs 8.58 points above its own average in September. UVXY runs 2.24 points below.

September 1, 2026

September is the worst month of the year for the S&P 500

Measured against its own average month, September is weaker for 69 of the 80 names we tested, by a median of 1.74 points. The S&P 500 itself averages just −0.59% in September versus +0.62% in a typical month. The gap between individual stocks is large. AEHR runs 4.04 points above its own average in September. CELH runs 11.18 points below.

August 31, 2026

AMD Has 32% Downside to Its Median Earnings Multiple

AMD trades at 119.76x trailing earnings per share against a five-year median of 81.46x, and at 18.65x sales, the most expensive of 79 quarter-end readings since 2006. At the median earnings multiple the price is $316.70.

August 30, 2026

The Odds of an SPX Drawdown at Every VIX Level

At a VIX of 30 the S&P 500 traded 1 percent below its close within 5 sessions 73 percent of the time. At a VIX of 13 it was 36 percent. The full grid for every VIX handle from 10 to 31, across 5,026 sessions since 2006.

August 29, 2026

Weekly Scorecard: 69.5% of Calls Hit +50%

682 option buying ideas reached expiration in the week of August 24, 2026. 69.5% of the calls hit a 50% gain or better and 41.3% doubled, against 47.5% and 32.7% for puts. The full peak breakdown for the week.

August 28, 2026

MRVL Gapped Down 6.69% on Q2 Earnings

MRVL opened 6.69% lower the morning after its August 27, 2026 report, with VIX at 14.51. Only 7 of 105 earnings reactions since 2000 have gapped down between 5.35% and 8.02%, and the 6 prior ones ended a median of 3.72% higher 3 months on. An ordinary gap down is −1.70% by then.

August 27, 2026

History favors buying $NVDA after a +6.2% post-earnings gap.

NVDA opened 6.16% higher the morning after its August 26, 2026 report, with VIX at 15.21. Only 13 of 110 earnings reactions since 1999 have gapped up between 4.93% and 7.40%, and the 12 prior ones ended a median of 5.21% higher 3 months on. An ordinary gap up is +9.18% by then.

August 24, 2026

Shorting SOXS at SOXX RSI < 30

Across 25 signals since 2010 the trade won 80 percent of the time with a median gain of 14.3 percent in 20 days, against 9.3 percent for a random day. Unlike the same setup on a volatility ETF, not one of the 25 went more than 100 percent against the position.

August 23, 2026

Shorting UVXY at VIX RSI > 70

Across 51 signals since 2011 the trade won 75 percent of the time with a median gain of 20.7 percent in 20 days. But UVXY decays on its own, and 8 of those 51 went more than 100 percent against the position, which for a short means liquidation.

August 22, 2026

AAPL Has 23% Downside as it trades near decade highs

AAPL trades at 9.77 times trailing sales per share and 35.39 times trailing earnings per share, the most expensive reading on sales in 79 quarters. The price rose 82 percent since March 2024 while sales per share rose 28 percent. Where its own five-year median multiples put the price.

August 21, 2026

7 in 10 Calls Hit +50%. Half Hit +100%.

4,001 of our published option ideas have now reached expiration, priced every day against each contract’s own highs. 69.7% of the calls traded at a 50% gain or better and 50.8% doubled, against 54.0% and 32.9% for puts. What a fixed profit target would have returned, and the three reasons not to read too much into it.

August 20, 2026

WMT Gapped Down 6.93% on Q2 Earnings

WMT opened 6.93% lower the morning after its August 20, 2026 report, with VIX at 14.89. Only 3 of 122 earnings reactions since 1996 have gapped down 6.93% or more, and the 2 prior ones are negative at every time frame, a median of 5.30% lower 3 months on. An ordinary gap down is +1.21% by then.

August 19, 2026

META Has 20% Upside as it trades near decade lows

META trades at 6.15x trailing sales per share and 20.60x trailing earnings per share. Price is down 26% since mid-2025 while sales per share is up 28% and earnings per share up 17%, putting both multiples near the bottom of their decade.

August 18, 2026

Rebuilding the Broken Window in VXX

How a 6-month creation halt distorted the historical record, and how we rebuild it

August 17, 2026

Will AI Recommendations Cause the Next Overcrowded Trade?

Everyone is asking the same models the same questions and getting the same stock recommendations back. That is how a crowded trade forms, and the danger is never the idea. It is the exit.

August 16, 2026

Monthly OPEX vs Normal Weeks

SPX returns around options expiration show almost no difference

August 15, 2026

Here’s Why We Have Been Shorting DJT on Every Bounce

DJT trades on one person’s continued prominence rather than on the business underneath it. Over the last four quarters it took in $4.5 million and lost $1.3 billion against a $2.3 billion market cap.

August 14, 2026

RDDT Gaps 12.96% on S&P News

RDDT gapped 11% on its S&P 500 inclusion. Across 187 additions since 2012 the outperformance lands before the add date, and what follows is within 1% of the market at every point we measured.

August 14, 2026

EDZ just gave back 75% of its 53% spike.

EDZ has just entered its 13th spike-and-fade cycle since 2009. In the 12 that finished, a new all-time low took a median of 44.5 sessions, and the ETF bounced 10% or more an average of 2.4 times on the way down. In 2015 one of those bounces ran 101.1%.

August 13, 2026

CSCO Gapped Down 8.04% on Q4 2026 Earnings

CSCO opened 8.04% lower the morning after its 12 August 2026 report, with VIX at 14.55. Only 11 of 123 earnings reactions since 1996 have gapped down 8.04% or more, and the 10 prior ones ended a median of 2.46% higher 3 months on. An ordinary gap down is +2.70% by then.

August 13, 2026

VIX Just Printed Its Lowest Reading of 2026

VIX set a new low for the year during August 7 times since 1990. The S&P 500 gained a median 2.6% over the rest of those years against 6.4% in a normal year, and every one of them saw VIX close back above 20.

August 12, 2026

History favors buying $SMCI after a +10.7% post-earnings gap.

SMCI opened 10.73% higher the morning after its 11 August 2026 report, with VIX at 15.28. Only 10 of 78 earnings reactions since 2007 have gapped up 10.73% or more, and the 9 prior ones are positive at every time frame, a median of 16.05% higher 3 months on. An ordinary gap up is +12.22% by then.

August 11, 2026

History says SE is a buy after gapping up 11.39% on earnings.

SE opened 11.39% higher the morning after its 11 August 2026 report, with VIX at 15.46. Only 9 of 36 earnings reactions since 2017 have gapped up 11.39% or more, and the 7 prior ones ended a median of 19.93% higher 3 months on. An ordinary gap up is +16.09% by then.

August 11, 2026

SOXS just gave back 77% of its 131% spike.

SOXS is 3 sessions into its 6th spike-and-fade cycle since 2010. A cycle starts at an all-time low, runs 131% above it, then hands back 77% of that run. In the 5 that finished, a new all-time low took a median of 79 sessions, and the ETF bounced 10% or more an average of 3.5 times on the way down. In 2022 one of those bounces ran 168.9%.

August 10, 2026

Less than 1% of weeks that closed near all-time highs were followed by a 10% drop.

SPX closed the week 0.46% below its all-time high with the VIX under 15. Since 1990, 242 weeks have closed that way, and only 2 were followed by a 10% decline inside the next month, against 4.0% of ordinary weeks. Those 2 were Volmageddon and COVID.

August 9, 2026

92% of S&P All-Time Highs Came With a Mag 7 Name in a Correction

SPX closed Friday at an all-time high while TSLA sat 34.1% below its own, META 25.6% and GOOGL 13.3%. Across the 1,204 sessions SPX closed within 1% of its high since 2012, at least one Mag 7 name was in a correction 92.4% of the time. The rare version is all seven being close to their highs at once, which happened on 7.6% of them.

August 8, 2026

UVXY Is Super Coiled Right Now. But It Doesn't Matter.

UVXY's five-day range is 9.42% against a typical 19.93%, tighter than 93% of every five-day window it has ever produced. The coiled spring read says it has to explode. The 53 comparable readings since 2013 closed lower more often than higher, at both the next day and the next week.

August 7, 2026

Bull Flags and Bear Flags (Now Auto-Detected for You)

Both patterns are a sharp move, the pole, followed by a short pause, the flag. The flag leans against the trend and the breakout follows the pole. Plain-language guide to both, plus the scanner that now finds them across the charts and draws the shape on the chart for you.

August 6, 2026

Why We Don't Divide Decay by 252

A flat annual decay rate divided by 252 treats every day the same. Across 3,725 UVXY sessions since 2011, the median week is 2.57% lower when it sits on its all-time low and 7.72% lower when it is stretched 50% or more above it. Three times the loss over the same 5 sessions.

August 5, 2026

TradeIntel Delivers the Only Analytics Suite Dedicated to Leveraged ETFs

Leveraged ETFs reset daily, bleed value through sideways markets and reverse-split every year or two, so a 52-week low on SOXS happens constantly and a moving-average crossover is just tracking decay. Here are the 9 tools we built around how these products actually behave, plus the UVXY history we rebased from 2x to 1.5x.

August 4, 2026

History Says to Sell Calls on AAPL Rallies

AAPL opened 8.58% lower the morning after its 30 July 2026 report, with VIX at 17.09. Only 6 of 122 earnings reactions since 1996 have gapped down 8.58% or more, and the 5 prior ones are negative at every time frame, a median of 11.22% lower 3 months on. An ordinary gap down is +3.92% by then.

August 3, 2026

For Mag 7 Names: Don’t Wait for the Earnings Gap to Fill

We measured every Mag 7 earnings gap up of 5% or more since August 2016, because a 1% gap is not a move you missed. Of those 76, only 33 traded back down to the pre-report price, a median of 13 sessions later. Buying each of those 33 there and selling before the next report returned a median of 4.1% and an average of 7.4%, with 21 of the 33 profitable.

August 2, 2026

8 of the 12 Leveraged ETFs We Tested Decay Less in August

Measured against its own average month, August is stronger for 8 of the 12 ETFs we tested, by a median of 2.18 points. Each ETF is measured only against its own history, never against the others. The gap between individual ETFs is large. UVXY runs 9.13 points above its own average in August. ZSL runs 4.44 points below.

August 1, 2026

August Is a Below-Average Month for 55 of 73 Stocks We Checked

Measured against its own average month, August is weaker for 55 of the 73 names we tested, by a median of 0.76 points. The S&P 500 itself averages just +0.04% in August versus +0.62% in a typical month. The gap between individual stocks is large. NVDA runs 4.01 points above its own average in August. SMCI runs 6.87 points below.

July 31, 2026

A 6-Point Gap That Usually Shows Up in a Falling Market

The S&P 500 outpaced the Nasdaq 100 by 6.45 points in July, a gap seen in only 15 of 328 months since 1999. It normally occurs deep in a decline, but this time the S&P was 1.6% from its own all-time high, the closest to a high it has ever happened. The five comparable instances all fell in 2000, and the S&P was lower a year after every one, by a median of 21.7%.

July 30, 2026

QQQ Just Entered Correction Territory for the 48th Time

QQQ closed 10% below its 52-week high on Tuesday and climbed back out the next day. That has happened 48 times since 1999. A week later it was higher 74% of the time, a month later 68%, and six months later 87% with a median gain of 15.7%, against 8.6% for a random stretch. Four of the six failures fall in 2000, 2008 and 2022.

July 29, 2026

Crossing above the 50 and 200 day moving averages on the day is less bullish than crossing either

The S&P 500 has closed above both its 50-day and 200-day on the same session 23 times since 1950. Three months later the median return was −1.13%, against +2.69% for a random day, +2.46% for a 50-day cross alone and +4.43% for a 200-day cross alone. Clearing both at once requires the two averages to have converged, which only happens after months of going nowhere.

July 28, 2026

SOXS just printed a 96.5% spike with the VIX at 18.90. That has never happened.

SOXS hit $62.32 in pre-market this morning, a 96.5% spike off its June 30 all-time low and the seventh in the ETF's history. The six before it averaged a VIX of 45.50, the lowest was 28.38, and not one happened below 20. This one came with the VIX at 18.90, so the under-20 bucket has its first entry in sixteen years.

July 27, 2026

SOXS Gaps Get Bigger the Further It Runs From Its Low, But Only Because Volatility Does

SOXS gapped 1% or more on 66.4% of its 4,121 sessions since 2010, and only 24.6% of those gaps closed by the bell. Gap frequency and gap size both climb cleanly with distance above the all-time low, a 5% gap going from 5.7% of sessions near the low to 51.1% past 100% above it. Measured against the ETF's own recent daily swing, the effect nearly vanishes.

July 26, 2026

WMT Just Printed a Death Cross for the first time in over 4 years

Walmart's 50-day average closed below its 200-day on July 24, 2026. The previous cross, in June 2022, landed 4 sessions before the lowest close of the entire decline, and the stock was 30% higher a year on. Across all 37 crosses in Walmart's record the median one printed after 70% of the fall was already behind it.

July 25, 2026

Why Being Right About Copper All Year Proves Nothing

Copper rose 51.8% over the past year, so saying up every week was right about 60% of the time without looking at anything. Over 52 weekly calls, a 63% record still has a 1 in 3 chance of being luck. And a forecaster who is truly 65% accurate needs about 9 years of calls before the record proves it.

July 24, 2026

Why the Popular Midterm Selloff Narrative Is Misleading

Midterm years since 1950 have averaged a 17.5% worst decline, and the figure reproduces exactly. Every other year has averaged 12.4%. 6 midterm years fell 20% or more, and 4 of those 6 land between 1962 and 1974.

July 23, 2026

Is PYPL an Obvious Short?

Shorting a weak stock the moment it turns overbought seems obvious, and across all of PayPal's history it looked pointless. But that blends its strong climb with its decline: the 53 crosses while PYPL was up over the prior year kept rising (64% green a month later), while the 6 while it was down fell every time we can measure, averaging -10%.

July 22, 2026

Should the VIX Decide How Much Stock You Own?

Let the VIX set your position size, so a reading of 20 means 20% of the account in stock. We tested the 1x and 1.5x versions on 4,850 daily closes. Both beat holding a fixed slice of the same size, and both left you at your largest while the market fell hardest.

July 21, 2026

A Strong Close After a Weak Open Is Not a Bullish Signal

A weak open that closes strong is supposed to show real buying. We tested both halves of that rule on 33 years of S&P 500 sessions under twelve different definitions of weak and strong. Every one leans the opposite way to the rule.

July 20, 2026

Weekly MACD Crosses Offer Almost No Edge

The weekly MACD cross is one of the most watched trend signals. We tested every bullish and bearish cross on 56 years of S&P 500 weekly closes. The week that follows looks the same in either direction, and the bearish cross is the one followed by the better week.

July 19, 2026

A Drawdown Does Not Improve Alphabet's Earnings Gap Odds

Alphabet gaps up on earnings about 60% of the time. Across 77 reports since 2007, going in 10% below its 52-week high leaves that rate unchanged, and 20% below drops it to 42%. Being beaten down first has not improved the odds, only widened the gap.

July 18, 2026

We tested 191 different moving averages on the SPX

We tested every moving average from the 10-day to the 200-day on the S&P 500 back to 1970. The best held 56.4% of the time and the worst 45.9%. The median of all 191 sat at 51.8%, against a coin flip at 50%.

July 17, 2026

Why a Slow 50% Drop Pays More in SOXS Than a One-Day Crash

The same 50% fall in the semiconductor index pays +150% in SOXS if it happens in one session and +524% if it happens over ten. The daily rebalance is the whole reason.

July 16, 2026

Probability of Profit vs. Probability of Touch: Which Metric Wins for Options Traders?

Why Probability of Touch is often the more useful number for both options sellers and buyers.

July 15, 2026

Cutting Risk in Half: The VIX>35 Timing Strategy

Buying the S&P 500 only when the VIX spikes above 35 and selling once it calms below 12 captured +457% over 20 years, close to buy-and-hold's +513%, while invested only 64% of the time and with roughly half the average drawdown. A backtest of the buy-panic, sell-calm family across entry and exit thresholds.

July 14, 2026

Goldman Sachs Earnings Gaps: 88% Win Rate Over 30 Days

Goldman Sachs has gapped up at least 3.74% on an earnings reaction eight times since 2008. In seven of those eight, GS was trading higher 30 days later, averaging +9.59% with the gap itself excluded. Every instance is here, along with why 8 observations cannot carry a high conviction trade.

July 13, 2026

Does Sell in May and Go Away Hold Up Over 20 Years?

A 20-year backtest of the Sell in May adage on the S&P 500. The winter half (Nov to Apr) really has beaten the summer half (May to Oct), averaging +5.88% versus +3.78%. But summer was still positive in 74% of years, and selling every May trailed buy-and-hold by a wide margin, +191% versus +513%.

July 12, 2026

Do Double Overbought RSI and Bollinger Bands on the SPX Increase Reversal Odds?

We tested two classic overbought signals on 20 years of the S&P 500: a close above the upper Bollinger Band, and RSI above 70. On its own, an upper-band close cuts the market's usual weekly gain to roughly a wash (54.8% green). With RSI above 70 as well, the next week becomes a coin flip at 50.6%, while oversold closes below the lower band still bounce 61.9% of the time.

July 11, 2026

Do Three Down Days Set Up a Bounce?

We checked the trader belief that three down days in a row is the sweet spot for a reversal, across 55 names and 20 years. The fourth-day bounce is real but small on the steady giants and the index (the S&P 500 rises to 59% green), and it turns negative on the hottest names like Rivian, SoFi and Palantir.

July 10, 2026

Heavy Volume Did Not Improve Short-Term Breakout Success

On 20 years of S&P 500 breakouts (a close above the prior day's high), heavy volume did not improve short-term follow-through. Low-volume breakouts held better the next day (53% vs 38%) and over five days (63% vs 44%), the opposite of the common rule that a breakout needs heavy volume to be real.

July 9, 2026

SPX 0DTE: The S&P 500 Reaches Its Gamma Walls on Three of Every Four Trading Days

We logged 90 trading days of 0DTE dealer gamma walls on the S&P 500. At least one wall was touched on 77% of sessions, and the direction of the open predicted which one: the wall on the side of the opening gap was reached about 62% of the time, the far wall about a quarter.

July 4, 2026

High-Volume Days Signal Bigger Moves, Not Direction

A study of ten major assets shows that 2x-volume spikes reliably widen both tails, while next-day and 30-day directional results are mixed.

July 3, 2026

Squeezes Don't Lead to Bigger Moves

We tested the volatility squeeze four ways on the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and semis across decades: consecutive range contraction, NR7, a range-percentile squeeze, and a Bollinger band-width squeeze. A tighter range does not precede a bigger move, and the sharper the squeeze, the quieter the day and week that follow.

July 2, 2026

Engulfing Candles Add Little Edge on Trending Indexes

On steadily rising indexes, the engulfing candle provides minimal additional information.

July 1, 2026

The Disappearing Correlation Between SMH and IGV

AI-driven infrastructure spending has decoupled two of technology’s most popular sector ETFs, dropping their same-direction move rate from 85.1% in 2022 to 55.2% in 2026.

June 28, 2026

The Longer VIX Sits Between 20 and 30, the More It Leans Toward 30+

We tracked every VIX episode between 20 and 30 since 2014 and asked which boundary breaks first: 30, or back below 20. The odds start out favoring a quick retreat, then flip the longer the episode drags on.

June 27, 2026

Inside Bars and Volatility Expansion

We tested inside days and inside weeks on the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and semis across decades. A single inside bar predicts neither direction nor a bigger move. Two in a row precede a move about a quarter larger than normal, but only two: three inside bars in a row almost never happen.

June 26, 2026

Week of July 4th: S&P 500 Historical Returns

We measured the S&P 500’s return during the week of July 4th for the past 20 years, year by year. The holiday week closed higher in 13 of 20 years with a +1.26% median, and the last decade ran green 9 times out of 10.

June 24, 2026

Can the Cboe Correlation Index Predict VIX Spikes?

COR1M, the Cboe correlation index, tracks how much S&P 500 stocks move together. We lined it up against the market and the VIX: it shadows the VIX almost perfectly, moves opposite to the market the same day, and does not predict the next day.

June 21, 2026

SPX 0DTE: What an Opening Gap Tells You About the Day

Across 33 years of S&P 500 sessions, an opening gap is a strong clue to whether it fills and a weak one for direction. Small gaps fill about 70% of the time, big gaps tend to run, and the day's green odds stay near a coin flip no matter how it opened.

June 20, 2026

Is Overnight Bitcoin a Better Predictor of the VIX Open Than S&P 500 Futures?

A popular claim says overnight Bitcoin shows where the VIX opens better than S&P futures. We tested nearly 1,500 overnight sessions going back to mid-2020: the S&P move wins clearly, and Bitcoin adds nothing once the S&P move is known.

June 19, 2026

Do Some Weekdays Reverse Harder Than Others?

Every weekday bounces about equally after a red day, but the fades are weekday-specific: a green Monday tends to give it back Tuesday. The strongest two-day setups are a green Friday-and-Monday fading into Tuesday and a red Monday-and-Tuesday rebounding on Wednesday.

June 4, 2026

Can Trendlines on the VIX Chart Predict a Bounce?

VIX bounces from almost everywhere, so a line drawn anywhere looks like it works. Once you control for the VIX level, the trendline adds nothing.

June 3, 2026

This is why VIX's RSI is Almost Never Oversold

We set out to test whether a beaten-down VIX warns of a spike. In 22 years its RSI dropped below 30 only five times. VIX is structurally almost never oversold.

June 2, 2026

Do VIX Moving Averages Predict the Next Spike?

We tested every cross above the 10, 20, 50, and 200-day lines, and being above them, over 22 years. The crosses lag, and being above the average just means VIX is already elevated.

May 31, 2026

Does a sharp one-day rise in VIX's RSI predict a bigger spike ahead?

The bigger the one-day surge in VIX's RSI, the more VIX faded afterward. The signal arrives after the spike is already made.

May 29, 2026

Can a VIX MACD Zero-Cross Predict a Volatility Spike?

It looks like it warned you before every big spike. We tested all 138 of them over 22 years against a plain baseline, and the forward odds match a random day.

May 28, 2026

Is Shorting BOIL Every Winter Really Free Money?

BOIL melts and winter is its worst season, so the short wins most years. The risk is the one winter in seven that can take the whole account.

May 25, 2026

Should You Buy a Stock at RSI 30?

On the S&P 500, buying at RSI 30 is a real edge. On single stocks it is a coin flip, and on the best stock of the decade it lost money. Oversold means opposite things on an index and a stock.

May 24, 2026

How Does VIX React to an S&P Death Cross?

By the time the death cross fires, VIX is already at its 84th percentile and the fear is in the tape. Then it fades, and the famous doom signal was followed by the S&P rising 80% of the time.

May 23, 2026

Do Death and Golden Crosses Predict Anything on Natural Gas?

Natural gas is the most mean-reverting commodity, and the 50/200 cross is a trend tool. Across 42 crosses since 2000 the golden cross bought the top (down 5% the next month) and the death cross often marked the bottom.

May 22, 2026

Should You Short a Failed Breakout?

A stock pokes above a prior high, then closes red: the classic reversal short. Across 20 years of the S&P 500 and QQQ it never paid. The indices tend to bounce; a failed breakout is usually a pause in an uptrend rather than a reversal.

May 21, 2026

What Happens If You Short UVXY at Every Spike?

UVXY decays to a new low almost every week, so held long enough every short wins. We shorted every 50% spike since 2011: a 100% win rate, and an account wiped to zero by one spike.

May 20, 2026

Does VIX9D Predict Bigger Volatility Ahead?

We ran two different tests for whether a rise in VIX9D predicts a rise in VIX, split by VIX regime (under 20, 20 and above). Neither found VIX9D leading VIX higher.