It’s also the worst month of the year for 24 other names.
September has a reputation of being a weak month, but the question is not whether the market goes lower in September, but whether a given stock does worse in September than it does the rest of the year. A stock that normally gains 4% a month and gains 2% in September has had a weak September, even though 2% on its own looks fine.
So we backtested 80 large-cap names against their own history. Turns out 69 of the 80 names we checked underperform their own average by a median of 1.74 points.
Let’s start with the index. SPX averages −0.59% in September against +0.62% for an average month, which makes September its worst month. The S&P 500 only closes higher 47% of the time in September.
The difference between individual names is much larger. AEHR averages +7.43% in September versus +3.38% in a typical month. AMZN and NKE also have better than average months in September, and it’s NKE’s strongest month of the year.
On the other hand, CELH averages −7.84% in September against +3.35% in a typical month and has closed lower in each of its last four Septembers.
AEHR and AMZN rank among the 6 strongest September performers, while CELH, AAPL and AMD sit among the 6 weakest.
| Ticker | September Avg | Avg Month | Gap | September Rank | Green/Red Frequency | Septembers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEHR | +7.43% | +3.38% | +4.04 | 2 of 12 | ▲48.3% / ▼51.7% | 29 |
| AMZN | +5.74% | +3.38% | +2.36 | 3 of 12 | ▲58.6% / ▼41.4% | 29 |
| NKE | +3.40% | +1.28% | +2.11 | 1 of 12 | ▲62.2% / ▼37.8% | 45 |
| ORCL | +3.37% | +1.91% | +1.46 | 3 of 12 | ▲57.5% / ▼42.5% | 40 |
| ABBV | +2.28% | +1.25% | +1.03 | 5 of 12 | ▲53.8% / ▼46.2% | 13 |
| GOOGL | +3.02% | +2.04% | +0.97 | 5 of 12 | ▲63.6% / ▼36.4% | 22 |
| DELL | +4.13% | +3.18% | +0.95 | 3 of 12 | ▲90.0% / ▼10.0% | 10 |
| CPER | +1.48% | +0.66% | +0.82 | 2 of 12 | ▲50.0% / ▼50.0% | 14 |
| STX | +2.50% | +1.96% | +0.54 | 6 of 12 | ▲52.2% / ▼47.8% | 23 |
| LULU | +2.21% | +1.72% | +0.49 | 6 of 12 | ▲63.2% / ▼36.8% | 19 |
| QCOM | +2.54% | +2.34% | +0.20 | 5 of 12 | ▲61.8% / ▼38.2% | 34 |
| BABA | +0.63% | +0.64% | −0.01 | 6 of 12 | ▲33.3% / ▼66.7% | 12 |
| LMT | +0.71% | +0.77% | −0.06 | 5 of 12 | ▲59.4% / ▼40.6% | 64 |
| CVX | +0.40% | +0.63% | −0.22 | 6 of 12 | ▲59.4% / ▼40.6% | 64 |
| LHX | +0.71% | +0.95% | −0.24 | 8 of 12 | ▲56.8% / ▼43.2% | 44 |
| CRM | +1.60% | +1.87% | −0.26 | 8 of 12 | ▲50.0% / ▼50.0% | 22 |
| IBKR | +0.52% | +0.81% | −0.29 | 8 of 12 | ▲63.2% / ▼36.8% | 19 |
| TSLA | +3.67% | +4.18% | −0.50 | 7 of 12 | ▲62.5% / ▼37.5% | 16 |
| GE | +0.22% | +0.83% | −0.61 | 8 of 12 | ▲46.9% / ▼53.1% | 64 |
| MCD | +0.49% | +1.12% | −0.63 | 8 of 12 | ▲55.0% / ▼45.0% | 60 |
| SBUX | +1.17% | +1.88% | −0.70 | 8 of 12 | ▲55.9% / ▼44.1% | 34 |
| META | +1.11% | +1.85% | −0.74 | 7 of 12 | ▲50.0% / ▼50.0% | 14 |
| MSFT | +1.22% | +1.96% | −0.74 | 10 of 12 | ▲67.5% / ▼32.5% | 40 |
| GLD | +0.05% | +0.81% | −0.76 | 10 of 12 | ▲42.9% / ▼57.1% | 21 |
| DPZ | +0.98% | +1.76% | −0.78 | 8 of 12 | ▲63.6% / ▼36.4% | 22 |
| PG | −0.16% | +0.67% | −0.82 | 10 of 12 | ▲48.4% / ▼51.6% | 64 |
| IBM | −0.26% | +0.58% | −0.84 | 10 of 12 | ▲53.1% / ▼46.9% | 64 |
| AVGO | +2.26% | +3.23% | −0.97 | 7 of 12 | ▲58.8% / ▼41.2% | 17 |
| JNJ | +0.03% | +1.03% | −0.99 | 10 of 12 | ▲50.0% / ▼50.0% | 64 |
| COST | +0.00% | +1.20% | −1.20 | 9 of 12 | ▲42.5% / ▼57.5% | 40 |
| SPX | −0.59% | +0.62% | −1.21 | 12 of 12 | ▲47.4% / ▼52.6% | 76 |
| UNH | +0.65% | +1.89% | −1.24 | 9 of 12 | ▲46.3% / ▼53.7% | 41 |
| MA | +0.62% | +2.05% | −1.43 | 11 of 12 | ▲55.0% / ▼45.0% | 20 |
| AAL | +0.07% | +1.53% | −1.46 | 8 of 12 | ▲57.1% / ▼42.9% | 21 |
| UEC | +0.83% | +2.31% | −1.47 | 6 of 12 | ▲52.6% / ▼47.4% | 19 |
| SMCI | +1.04% | +2.57% | −1.53 | 7 of 12 | ▲52.6% / ▼47.4% | 19 |
| LLY | −0.56% | +1.00% | −1.56 | 12 of 12 | ▲48.1% / ▼51.9% | 54 |
| ADBE | +0.41% | +2.03% | −1.62 | 9 of 12 | ▲60.0% / ▼40.0% | 40 |
| MSTR | +1.52% | +3.14% | −1.62 | 6 of 12 | ▲53.6% / ▼46.4% | 28 |
| XLF | −1.27% | +0.44% | −1.71 | 11 of 12 | ▲40.7% / ▼59.3% | 27 |
| PEP | −1.01% | +0.75% | −1.76 | 12 of 12 | ▲44.4% / ▼55.6% | 54 |
| BA | −0.90% | +0.93% | −1.82 | 11 of 12 | ▲51.6% / ▼48.4% | 64 |
| GS | −0.78% | +1.08% | −1.86 | 11 of 12 | ▲51.9% / ▼48.1% | 27 |
| IGV | −0.97% | +0.89% | −1.87 | 11 of 12 | ▲52.0% / ▼48.0% | 25 |
| WMT | −0.45% | +1.43% | −1.87 | 11 of 12 | ▲46.3% / ▼53.7% | 54 |
| F | −1.43% | +0.52% | −1.95 | 11 of 12 | ▲46.3% / ▼53.7% | 54 |
| TXN | −0.85% | +1.16% | −2.01 | 11 of 12 | ▲53.7% / ▼46.3% | 54 |
| NOW | +0.44% | +2.48% | −2.04 | 10 of 12 | ▲50.0% / ▼50.0% | 14 |
| IWM | −1.50% | +0.62% | −2.12 | 12 of 12 | ▲46.2% / ▼53.8% | 26 |
| CAT | −1.16% | +1.02% | −2.18 | 12 of 12 | ▲42.2% / ▼57.8% | 64 |
| FSLR | −0.03% | +2.17% | −2.20 | 10 of 12 | ▲52.6% / ▼47.4% | 19 |
| INTC | −0.94% | +1.41% | −2.35 | 12 of 12 | ▲45.7% / ▼54.3% | 46 |
| MU | −0.10% | +2.29% | −2.38 | 11 of 12 | ▲47.6% / ▼52.4% | 42 |
| KO | −1.69% | +0.72% | −2.41 | 12 of 12 | ▲39.1% / ▼60.9% | 64 |
| QQQ | −1.65% | +0.82% | −2.47 | 12 of 12 | ▲51.9% / ▼48.1% | 27 |
| PANW | +0.19% | +2.92% | −2.73 | 10 of 12 | ▲42.9% / ▼57.1% | 14 |
| HD | −0.81% | +1.93% | −2.73 | 12 of 12 | ▲48.9% / ▼51.1% | 45 |
| TSM | −1.38% | +1.39% | −2.77 | 12 of 12 | ▲53.6% / ▼46.4% | 28 |
| HAL | −1.96% | +0.85% | −2.80 | 12 of 12 | ▲48.1% / ▼51.9% | 54 |
| SOXX | −1.71% | +1.15% | −2.86 | 12 of 12 | ▲48.0% / ▼52.0% | 25 |
| DIS | −1.77% | +1.12% | −2.89 | 12 of 12 | ▲43.8% / ▼56.2% | 64 |
| SLV | −2.15% | +0.78% | −2.93 | 11 of 12 | ▲45.0% / ▼55.0% | 20 |
| JPM | −2.01% | +0.96% | −2.96 | 12 of 12 | ▲45.7% / ▼54.3% | 46 |
| HON | −2.39% | +0.59% | −2.98 | 12 of 12 | ▲42.2% / ▼57.8% | 64 |
| PYPL | −2.38% | +0.65% | −3.03 | 11 of 12 | ▲27.3% / ▼72.7% | 11 |
| FTNT | −0.48% | +2.76% | −3.23 | 12 of 12 | ▲50.0% / ▼50.0% | 16 |
| SMH | −2.46% | +0.94% | −3.40 | 12 of 12 | ▲46.2% / ▼53.8% | 26 |
| V | −1.95% | +1.48% | −3.43 | 12 of 12 | ▲38.9% / ▼61.1% | 18 |
| BAC | −2.59% | +0.85% | −3.44 | 12 of 12 | ▲43.4% / ▼56.6% | 53 |
| NFLX | −0.25% | +3.23% | −3.48 | 11 of 12 | ▲58.3% / ▼41.7% | 24 |
| MS | −2.81% | +1.20% | −4.02 | 12 of 12 | ▲48.5% / ▼51.5% | 33 |
| NVDA | −0.25% | +3.79% | −4.05 | 10 of 12 | ▲55.6% / ▼44.4% | 27 |
| SHOP | +0.19% | +4.31% | −4.12 | 9 of 12 | ▲54.5% / ▼45.5% | 11 |
| MRVL | −2.28% | +1.98% | −4.25 | 12 of 12 | ▲46.2% / ▼53.8% | 26 |
| AMAT | −2.65% | +1.99% | −4.64 | 12 of 12 | ▲37.0% / ▼63.0% | 46 |
| LITE | −1.40% | +3.35% | −4.75 | 11 of 12 | ▲27.3% / ▼72.7% | 11 |
| ASML | −3.13% | +2.25% | −5.38 | 12 of 12 | ▲38.7% / ▼61.3% | 31 |
| AMD | −3.57% | +2.11% | −5.68 | 11 of 12 | ▲37.0% / ▼63.0% | 46 |
| AAPL | −3.90% | +1.87% | −5.77 | 12 of 12 | ▲40.0% / ▼60.0% | 45 |
| CELH | −7.84% | +3.35% | −11.18 | 12 of 12 | ▲26.3% / ▼73.7% | 19 |
September is the worst month of the year for 25 of the 80: SPX, LLY, PEP, IWM, CAT, INTC, KO, QQQ, HD, TSM, HAL, SOXX, DIS, JPM, HON, FTNT, SMH, V, BAC, MS, MRVL, AMAT, ASML, AAPL and CELH. For 48 of them it lands in the bottom 3.
Measured against its own average month, September is weaker for 69 of the 80 names we tested, by a median of 1.74 points. The S&P 500 itself averages just −0.59% in September versus +0.62% in a typical month.
The gap between individual stocks is large. AEHR runs 4.04 points above its own average in September. CELH runs 11.18 points below.
TradeIntel’s Seasonality tool breaks down the historical month-by-month return pattern for stocks, ETFs, and the broad market.
Open the Seasonality Tool
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