Every comparable gap since 2007, and what followed.
LULU reported fiscal Q2 earnings after the close on September 3, 2026, and the stock gapped down −19.40% the next morning. VIX was at 14.32 that evening, so this happened in a low VIX environment.
In general, LULU gaps down after earnings 46.8% of the time (36 times out of 77 earnings reports since September 2007).
The size of the gap was well above average. It gapped down 19.40% vs its average gap down of −8.37%.
| Time Frame | Any gap down | Green/Red Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | −1.80% | ▲45.7% / ▼54.3% |
| 1 month | +1.81% | ▲54.3% / ▼45.7% |
| 3 months | −3.70% | ▲48.6% / ▼51.4% |
| Before next earnings | +0.84% | ▲51.4% / ▼48.6% |
After any gap down, LULU tends to go nowhere and chop sideways until the next earnings report.
| Gap Session | Gap | VIX | 1 Week | 1 Month | 3 Months | Before next earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 11, 2008 | −21.51% | 55.7 | −4.63% | −18.03% | −26.80% | −6.58% |
| December 1, 2011 | −15.61% | 27.8 | +9.35% | +12.14% | +64.09% | +76.61% |
| June 12, 2014 | −15.96% | 11.6 | +8.17% | +4.41% | +17.46% | +3.12% |
| March 30, 2017 | −21.58% | 11.4 | −2.33% | −0.77% | +13.68% | −6.39% |
| June 6, 2025 | −18.02% | 18.5 | −11.83% | −13.01% | −38.01% | −24.00% |
| September 5, 2025 | −19.87% | 15.3 | −3.19% | +5.44% | +11.18% | +13.24% |
| Time Frame | Gap down, VIX < 20 | Green/Red Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | −1.44% | ▲44.4% / ▼55.6% |
| 1 month | +2.88% | ▲55.6% / ▼44.4% |
| 3 months | −4.40% | ▲50.0% / ▼50.0% |
| Before next earnings | −0.28% | ▲50.0% / ▼50.0% |
After a gap down in a low VIX environment LULU also tends to go nowhere and chop sideways until the next earnings report.
The forward return calculations in this article begin at the 9:30am open the next morning after the stock has already gapped down, so the gap is not part of the forward calculations.
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