Every comparable gap since 1996, and what followed.
WMT reported fiscal Q2 earnings before the open on August 20, 2026, and the stock gapped down −6.93% that morning. VIX was at 14.89 the evening before, so this happened in a low VIX environment.
WMT gaps down after earnings 41.8% of the time (51 times out of 122 earnings reports since May 1996).
The size of the gap was well above average. A gap down of 6.93% vs its average gap down of −2.71%.
| Time Frame | Any gap down (49) | Green/Red Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | −1.00% | ▲38.8% / ▼61.2% |
| 1 month | −1.21% | ▲40.8% / ▼59.2% |
| 3 months | +1.21% | ▲51.0% / ▼49.0% |
| Before next earnings | −0.88% | ▲44.9% / ▼55.1% |
After any gap down, WMT tends to chop sideways and go nowhere until next earnings.
| Gap Session | Gap | VIX | 1 Week | 1 Month | 3 Months | Before next earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 20, 2018 | −7.43% | 19.5 | −5.64% | −9.08% | −12.87% | −11.20% |
| May 17, 2022 | −7.95% | 27.5 | −9.02% | −11.59% | +2.26% | −2.81% |
The 2 gaps this size or bigger had negative average returns until next earnings.
| Time Frame | Gap down, VIX < 20 (33) | Green/Red Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | −1.41% | ▲27.3% / ▼72.7% |
| 1 month | −1.23% | ▲36.4% / ▼63.6% |
| 3 months | +1.21% | ▲51.5% / ▼48.5% |
| Before next earnings | −0.65% | ▲48.5% / ▼51.5% |
After a gap down in a low VIX environment WMT typically chops sideways and goes nowhere until next earnings.
The forward return calculations in this article begin at the 9:30am open that morning after the stock has already gapped down, so the gap is not part of the forward calculations.
TradeIntel’s Earnings Analyzer shows the historical gap and what followed it, report by report, for any stock you are watching.
Open the Earnings Analyzer
Comments
Loading comments…