It wins 80 percent of the time and not one trade blew up the account
When the RSI on SOXX falls below 30, one might get the idea that semiconductors are oversold so it’s a good time to short SOXS right now.
We pulled up every occurrence where SOXX RSI went below 30 since SOXS’s inception date of March 2010. There were 25 of them.
The trade wins 80% of the time. Not one of them would have blown up your account.
| Hold | Median Return | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | +0.6% | 56% |
| 5 days | +7.7% | 72% |
| 10 days | +7.2% | 60% |
| 20 days | +14.3% | 80% |
A median gain of 14.3% in 20 days, winning 4 times out of 5. On its own that reads like a good trade.
SOXS is a decaying instrument. It’s designed to go lower over time regardless of where the RSI on SOXX is currently at.
So the real question is not whether the trade wins. It is whether the trade beats shorting on a random day.
| Hold | Median Return (SOXX RSI <30) | Win Rate (SOXX RSI <30) | Median Return (Random day) | Win Rate (Random day) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | +0.6% | 56% | +0.4% | 54% |
| 5 days | +7.7% | 72% | +2.7% | 61% |
| 10 days | +7.2% | 60% | +4.9% | 64% |
| 20 days | +14.3% | 80% | +9.3% | 70% |
Shorting when SOXX RSI is below 30 has a better median return at every timeframe.
The win rate is also better, except at 10 days.
At the 20-day hold, the 20 winners made +453% in total while the 5 losers lost 33%.
At 20 days, not one trade went more than 100% against you. The worst drawdown was 47.3%, in February 2020, and it still closed green after 20 days.
| Signal date | SOXX RSI that day | Result | Worst Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2020 | 29.6 | +38.7% | -47.3% |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 25.6 | +53.7% | -45.2% |
| Sep 26, 2022 | 28.9 | +5.3% | -36.2% |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 22.5 | +10.3% | -30.8% |
| Aug 20, 2015 | 28.3 | +13.9% | -30.6% |
| Aug 4, 2011 | 28.7 | +5.9% | -27.6% |
It works because SOXS cannot run away from you the way a volatility ETF can. For the short to lose 100%, SOXX has to fall an additional 33% while it’s already in oversold territory. The worst 20-day fall in its entire history is 34%, in February 2020, and by the time RSI had dropped under 30 most of that decline was already behind you.
Pick any leveraged ETF and the tool projects how much it will decay from here.
Open the Decay Projection Tool
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