We measured every name against its own average monthly return. Most weaken in August. Only a small group does better.
August has a reputation as a weak month. The useful question is not whether the market drifts, but whether a given stock does worse in August than it does the rest of the year. A stock that normally gains 4% a month and gains 2% in August has had a weak August, even though 2% on its own looks fine.
So we backtested 73 large-cap names against themselves. For each one we took the average August and subtracted its own average month across the whole record. 55 of the 73 come out below their own average, by a median of 0.76 points.
Start with the index. SPX averages +0.04% in August against +0.62% for an average month, which makes August the 3rd worst month. Only February and September are worse. Having said that, August still closes higher 57% of the time.
The difference between individual names is much larger. NVDA averages +7.79% in August versus +3.78% in a typical month, a 4.01-point edge, and has closed the month higher in 81% of years. AAPL and AMD are close behind, and August is CRM’s strongest month of the year.
On the other side, SMCI averages −4.42% in August against +2.45% in a typical month, a 6.87-point shortfall, and has declined in each of its last 3 Augusts.
Semiconductors appear at both ends of the list. NVDA and AMD rank among the 6 strongest August performers, while SMCI, ASML and AMAT sit among the 6 weakest. Whatever August does to these names, it does not do it by sector.
| Ticker | August Avg | Avg Month | Gap | August Rank | August Higher | Augusts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | +7.79% | +3.78% | +4.01 | 3 of 12 | 81% | 27 |
| AAPL | +5.08% | +1.87% | +3.21 | 2 of 12 | 69% | 45 |
| AMD | +5.14% | +2.12% | +3.02 | 2 of 12 | 63% | 46 |
| CRM | +4.55% | +1.73% | +2.82 | 1 of 12 | 64% | 22 |
| TSLA | +6.01% | +4.12% | +1.89 | 5 of 12 | 50% | 16 |
| PANW | +4.68% | +2.87% | +1.81 | 4 of 12 | 64% | 14 |
| BABA | +2.41% | +0.72% | +1.69 | 3 of 12 | 64% | 11 |
| SLV | +1.86% | +0.72% | +1.14 | 4 of 12 | 65% | 20 |
| NFLX | +4.29% | +3.21% | +1.08 | 4 of 12 | 67% | 24 |
| AAL | +2.44% | +1.60% | +0.83 | 6 of 12 | 40% | 20 |
| PYPL | +1.45% | +0.73% | +0.72 | 4 of 12 | 73% | 11 |
| PG | +1.38% | +0.67% | +0.71 | 3 of 12 | 64% | 64 |
| IBKR | +1.44% | +0.77% | +0.67 | 4 of 12 | 63% | 19 |
| GLD | +1.42% | +0.78% | +0.64 | 3 of 12 | 57% | 21 |
| NOW | +2.81% | +2.32% | +0.49 | 7 of 12 | 64% | 14 |
| QQQ | +1.26% | +0.82% | +0.44 | 5 of 12 | 59% | 27 |
| LULU | +2.11% | +1.74% | +0.38 | 7 of 12 | 53% | 19 |
| MA | +2.11% | +2.04% | +0.07 | 5 of 12 | 65% | 20 |
| SHOP | +4.13% | +4.15% | −0.02 | 7 of 12 | 55% | 11 |
| TXN | +1.10% | +1.17% | −0.06 | 6 of 12 | 54% | 54 |
| XLF | +0.37% | +0.44% | −0.07 | 6 of 12 | 56% | 27 |
| IGV | +0.79% | +0.85% | −0.07 | 4 of 12 | 56% | 25 |
| IWM | +0.52% | +0.62% | −0.10 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 26 |
| V | +1.28% | +1.47% | −0.19 | 7 of 12 | 72% | 18 |
| AVGO | +3.01% | +3.27% | −0.27 | 5 of 12 | 71% | 17 |
| MRVL | +1.69% | +1.95% | −0.27 | 5 of 12 | 46% | 26 |
| WMT | +1.16% | +1.44% | −0.28 | 9 of 12 | 54% | 54 |
| CVX | +0.30% | +0.62% | −0.32 | 7 of 12 | 45% | 64 |
| MSFT | +1.50% | +1.95% | −0.45 | 8 of 12 | 65% | 40 |
| QCOM | +1.81% | +2.32% | −0.50 | 8 of 12 | 53% | 34 |
| JNJ | +0.52% | +1.02% | −0.51 | 8 of 12 | 53% | 64 |
| SPX | +0.04% | +0.62% | −0.58 | 10 of 12 | 57% | 76 |
| SMH | +0.31% | +0.94% | −0.62 | 7 of 12 | 54% | 26 |
| AMZN | +2.79% | +3.42% | −0.63 | 8 of 12 | 55% | 29 |
| META | +1.24% | +1.88% | −0.63 | 7 of 12 | 64% | 14 |
| BA | +0.19% | +0.94% | −0.75 | 8 of 12 | 50% | 64 |
| IBM | −0.19% | +0.57% | −0.76 | 9 of 12 | 44% | 64 |
| JPM | +0.19% | +0.96% | −0.77 | 10 of 12 | 52% | 46 |
| CPER | −0.14% | +0.66% | −0.80 | 9 of 12 | 43% | 14 |
| TSM | +0.57% | +1.38% | −0.82 | 8 of 12 | 57% | 28 |
| HD | +1.11% | +1.94% | −0.83 | 8 of 12 | 55% | 44 |
| BAC | +0.02% | +0.86% | −0.84 | 10 of 12 | 45% | 53 |
| HAL | −0.04% | +0.82% | −0.86 | 10 of 12 | 46% | 54 |
| ABBV | +0.34% | +1.23% | −0.89 | 8 of 12 | 46% | 13 |
| LLY | +0.07% | +1.00% | −0.93 | 9 of 12 | 41% | 54 |
| KO | −0.23% | +0.72% | −0.95 | 10 of 12 | 48% | 64 |
| NKE | +0.33% | +1.30% | −0.97 | 11 of 12 | 53% | 45 |
| GS | +0.02% | +1.09% | −1.07 | 9 of 12 | 56% | 27 |
| FSLR | +1.15% | +2.24% | −1.09 | 9 of 12 | 47% | 19 |
| HON | −0.49% | +0.60% | −1.10 | 9 of 12 | 45% | 64 |
| CAT | −0.14% | +1.03% | −1.16 | 10 of 12 | 52% | 64 |
| SOXX | −0.04% | +1.15% | −1.19 | 10 of 12 | 60% | 25 |
| INTC | +0.22% | +1.42% | −1.20 | 10 of 12 | 48% | 46 |
| SBUX | +0.63% | +1.87% | −1.25 | 10 of 12 | 50% | 34 |
| MCD | −0.15% | +1.12% | −1.27 | 10 of 12 | 50% | 60 |
| GE | −0.55% | +0.84% | −1.39 | 12 of 12 | 48% | 64 |
| ADBE | +0.58% | +2.00% | −1.42 | 7 of 12 | 57% | 40 |
| DELL | +1.58% | +3.15% | −1.57 | 7 of 12 | 70% | 10 |
| COST | −0.38% | +1.21% | −1.59 | 12 of 12 | 53% | 40 |
| PEP | −0.90% | +0.75% | −1.65 | 11 of 12 | 48% | 54 |
| DIS | −0.72% | +1.11% | −1.83 | 10 of 12 | 42% | 64 |
| GOOGL | +0.24% | +2.09% | −1.85 | 9 of 12 | 50% | 22 |
| MU | +0.32% | +2.26% | −1.94 | 10 of 12 | 45% | 42 |
| DPZ | −0.16% | +1.79% | −1.95 | 10 of 12 | 45% | 22 |
| UNH | −0.23% | +1.91% | −2.14 | 12 of 12 | 49% | 41 |
| MSTR | +0.82% | +3.03% | −2.21 | 6 of 12 | 36% | 28 |
| MS | −1.02% | +1.20% | −2.23 | 10 of 12 | 45% | 33 |
| STX | −0.31% | +1.97% | −2.28 | 12 of 12 | 52% | 23 |
| ORCL | −0.48% | +1.91% | −2.39 | 12 of 12 | 50% | 40 |
| F | −1.95% | +0.53% | −2.48 | 12 of 12 | 37% | 54 |
| AMAT | −0.86% | +2.02% | −2.87 | 11 of 12 | 48% | 46 |
| ASML | −2.38% | +2.25% | −4.63 | 11 of 12 | 48% | 31 |
| SMCI | −4.42% | +2.45% | −6.87 | 11 of 12 | 42% | 19 |
August is the worst month of the year for 6 of the 73: GE, COST, UNH, STX, ORCL and F. For 25 of them it lands in the bottom 3.
Measured against its own average month, August is weaker for 55 of the 73 names we tested, by a median of 0.76 points. The S&P 500 itself averages just +0.04% in August versus +0.62% in a typical month.
The gap between individual stocks is large. NVDA runs 4.01 points above its own average in August. SMCI runs 6.87 points below.
These samples range from 10 Augusts to 76, and a single strong or weak year can move the average. Use the numbers as context alongside other tools rather than as a standalone signal.
TradeIntel’s Seasonality tool breaks down the historical month-by-month return pattern for stocks, ETFs, and the broad market.
Open the Seasonality Tool
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