Tool Tutorials

Daily Return Streak Tutorial

Defining a Daily Return Streak

A Daily Return Streak is an uninterrupted sequence of trading sessions that all closed in the same direction (consecutively positive or consecutively negative). For any streak in progress, the tool tracks two things:

  1. Length: how many sessions in a row have gone the same direction.
  2. Total return: the compounded percentage move from the first day of the streak through the latest close.
Cumulative Streak Return % = [ ∏ (1 + Rt) − 1 ] × 100the product of (1 + each day's return) across all N days, minus 1

Where Rt represents the single-day fractional return on session t.

+ + + the total 3 days in the same direction, compounded one flat or opposite day ends the run
The length is how many days the run lasted. The total is what those days add up to.

Why the engine uses total return, not only length

Two streaks can run the same number of days and still be nothing alike:

  • Streak A: +0.5%, +0.8%, +0.7% → +2.0% over 3 days.
  • Streak B: +4.2%, +5.1%, +5.0% → +14.97% over 3 days.

Both are 3-day streaks. Matching on length alone would treat them as the same event. Adding total return keeps a slow grind from being compared against an explosive run.

Matching criteria

Finding past streaks of the same size and length

The engine looks through the ticker's history for past runs that went the same direction, lasted the same number of days, and ended up with a similar total return.

Tool Glossary

The Basics

Streak

An unbroken run of sessions that all closed the same way, either up or down. It ends on the first session that closes flat or the other way.

Direction

Whether the run is up or down. An up streak is only ever compared against past up streaks.

Length

How many sessions in a row have gone the same direction.

Total return

The compounded percentage move from the first day of the streak through the latest close. It is not the daily moves added up, because each day's move is applied to what the last one left behind.

The Readings

Matched days

The past sessions that met the same conditions you set. Every statistic the tool prints is measured from these and nothing else.

Sample

The number of matched occurrences behind a statistic. A 70% hit rate off 8 occurrences and a 70% hit rate off 400 are not the same claim. The sample is printed next to every result for that reason.