This tool looks up every past moment when a leveraged ETF (like UVXY) traded at the exact same percentage above its all-time low as it is today. It then replays what the price did over the following weeks, and overlays those outcomes onto today's price. The downward forward returns you see are not theoretical. It comes out of UVXY's own history.
The all-time low steps down at each new low and holds flat until the next one. The reading the tool matches on is how far the current price sits above whichever low is in force today.
Step 1: Gathering the sample size
Say UVXY is sitting 62% above its all time low. The tool then walks the entire price record looking for every day whose intraday high first reached 1.62 times whatever the all-time low was on that date. It uses only one match per ATL. Those dates become the sample size.
Step 2: Generating forward returns
Taking the 4:00 PM closing price for each matching day, the tool calculates where the price moved in the days that followed. By layering every path on top of one another, it generates a visual price cone showing how the asset historically performed after spikes of this scale.
Every matched path layered on top of each other, drawn forward from today's price. On this sample the median path drops below the ATL line inside the first 3 weeks, while the upper boundary still reaches $30.28.
Leveraged ETF Products
Volatility Products
UVXY (ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF)
Underlying Target: Long Volatility (S&P 500 Short-Term VIX Futures Index)
Primary Behavior: Extreme, rapid upward price movements during broad market shocks, paired with accelerated, steady downward price erosion during flat or rising equity market conditions.
VXX (iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
Underlying Target: Long Volatility (S&P 500 Short-Term VIX Futures Index)
Daily Exposure:1x unleveraged daily return.
Core Characteristics: Unsecured debt instrument (ETN) tracking front- and second-month VIX futures contracts without leverage.
Primary Behavior: Sharp upward price spikes during severe stock market declines, accompanied by relentless long-term price decay driven by structural contango in the VIX futures curve.
Inverse Equity Products
SQQQ (ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ)
Underlying Target: Inverse Tech / Nasdaq-100
Daily Exposure:-3x (3x inverse) daily return of the Nasdaq-100 Index.
Core Characteristics: Uses swaps and futures contracts to reflect three times the inverse daily price change of large-cap tech equities.
Primary Behavior: Large price gains during single-day or short-term drops in tech equities; compounding drag causes significant value loss over extended periods of sideways volatility or upward trends.
Primary Behavior: Wide daily price swings inverse to semiconductor stocks, characterized by rapid price drops during industry expansions and path-dependent volatility drag in range-bound markets.
LABD (Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares)
Underlying Target: Inverse Biotechnology Sector
Daily Exposure:-3x (3x inverse) daily return of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index.
Core Characteristics: Inverse leveraged tracking of equal-weighted biotech equities.
Primary Behavior: High intra-day price variance moving inversely to biotech index movements, with severe performance degradation over multi-day periods due to high constituent stock volatility.
SPXU (ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500)
Underlying Target: Inverse Large-Cap US Equities
Daily Exposure:-3x (3x inverse) daily return of the S&P 500 Index.
Core Characteristics: Inverse leveraged product tied directly to the benchmark S&P 500 Index.
Primary Behavior: Inverse alignment with daily S&P 500 price changes, exhibiting cumulative performance loss relative to its 3x inverse target during volatile, non-trending market regimes.
TZA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares)
Underlying Target: Inverse Small-Cap US Equities
Daily Exposure:-3x (3x inverse) daily return of the Russell 2000 Index.
Core Characteristics: Inverse leveraged tracking of small-cap equities.
Primary Behavior: Sharp upward movements during small-cap equity declines, alongside pronounced path-dependent performance drag in fluctuating market environments.
Daily Exposure:-1x (1x inverse) daily return of Tesla stock.
Core Characteristics: Single-stock inverse ETF reflecting the inverse daily percentage move of TSLA stock.
Primary Behavior: Exact inverse correlation with single-day price movements of TSLA, with holding-period return divergence emerging during periods of high price volatility.
Commodity & Precious Metals Products
BOIL (ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas)
Underlying Target: Leveraged Long Natural Gas Futures
Daily Exposure:2x daily return of the Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex.
Core Characteristics: Leveraged futures-based ETF tracking Henry Hub natural gas contracts.
Primary Behavior: Violent upward price moves during sudden supply/demand shocks in natural gas, coupled with extreme price erosion when natural gas futures trade in contango.
ZSL (ProShares UltraShort Silver)
Underlying Target: Inverse Leveraged Silver
Daily Exposure:-2x (2x inverse) daily return of silver futures prices.
Core Characteristics: Leveraged inverse exposure to precious metals futures contracts.
Primary Behavior: Price increases corresponding to drops in silver futures, subject to roll yield decay and leverage compounding drag over multi-day periods.
DUST (Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares)
Daily Exposure:-2x (2x inverse) daily return of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index.
Core Characteristics: Leveraged inverse exposure to gold mining equities.
Primary Behavior: High price volatility moving inversely to gold mining equities, experiencing rapid structural decay during choppy or range-bound equity price action.
GLL (ProShares UltraShort Gold)
Underlying Target: Inverse Leveraged Gold Futures
Daily Exposure:-2x (2x inverse) daily return of gold futures prices.
Core Characteristics: Leveraged inverse tracking of spot/futures gold prices.
Primary Behavior: Price appreciation during declines in gold futures prices, alongside compounding loss and futures contract rolling drag over extended time frames.
Comparative Summary
Ticker
Asset Class
Direction
Leverage
UVXY
Volatility
Long
1.5x
UVIX
Volatility
Long
2x
VXX
Volatility
Long
1x
SQQQ
Equity (Tech)
Inverse
-3x
SOXS
Equity (Semis)
Inverse
-3x
LABD
Equity (Biotech)
Inverse
-3x
SPXU
Equity (Broad)
Inverse
-3x
TZA
Equity (Small Cap)
Inverse
-3x
TSLQ
Single Stock
Inverse
-1x
BOIL
Commodity
Long
2x
ZSL
Commodity
Inverse
-2x
DUST
Mining Equities
Inverse
-2x
GLL
Commodity
Inverse
-2x
Tool Glossary
The Basics
Leveraged and inverse volatility ETFs
ETFs that reset their exposure every day to deliver a multiple of an index move. Examples include 1.5x long VIX futures or 3x inverse semiconductors.
All-time low
The lowest price the ETF has ever printed as of that session.
Spike percentage
How far price sits above the all-time low, expressed as a percentage. A spike of 62% means price is 1.62 times the low.
The Results
Match
A past day whose intraday high first reached today's spike percentage off whatever the all-time low was on that date.
Sample size
The number of matches the scan found across the ETF's whole record.
Forward path
What price did over the sessions after a matching day, measured from that day's 4:00 PM close.
Price cone
Every forward path laid on top of the others and drawn forward from today's price.
Median path
The middle outcome at each session: half the matched paths ended above it, half below.
Spot
Today's price, where the cone starts.
Percentile bands
The shaded bands around the median. The inner band holds the middle 66% of paths and the outer band the middle 80%.