Every comparable gap since 1996, and what followed.
WMT reported fiscal Q2 2027 earnings before the open on 20 August 2026, and the stock opened 6.96% lower that morning. VIX was at 14.89 the evening before, so this happened in a calm market.
This is nothing unusual because WMT gaps down after earnings often. It's gapped down 51 times out of 122 earnings reports since May 1996.
The size of the gap was well above average. A gap down of 6.96% vs its average gap down of −2.71%.
| Time Frame | Gap −6.96% or worse (2) | Any gap down (49) |
|---|---|---|
| Same day | −3.35% | −0.26% |
| 1 day | −7.95% | −0.81% |
| 1 week | −7.33% | −1.00% |
| 2 weeks | −8.11% | −1.10% |
| 1 month | −10.34% | −1.21% |
| 2 months | −7.68% | −0.12% |
| 3 months | −5.30% | +1.21% |
| Before next earnings | −7.00% | −0.88% |
After any gap down, WMT swings between −1.21% and −0.12% over two months and ends up 1.21% at 3 months. The 2 gaps this size or bigger were negative at every time frame.
| Gap Session | Gap | VIX | 1 Week | 1 Month | 3 Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-20 | −7.43% | 19.5 | −5.64% | −9.08% | −12.87% |
| 2022-05-17 | −7.95% | 27.5 | −9.02% | −11.59% | +2.26% |
1 of the 2 occurred with VIX above 20. The one low-VIX case, February 2018 at 19.5, fell another 12.87% over the following 3 months.
| Time Frame | Gap down, VIX < 20 (33) | Gap down, VIX ≥ 20 (16) |
|---|---|---|
| Same day | −0.48% | 0.00% |
| 1 day | −0.86% | +0.04% |
| 1 week | −1.41% | +1.44% |
| 2 weeks | −1.26% | +0.72% |
| 1 month | −1.23% | +1.99% |
| 2 months | −1.15% | +3.00% |
| 3 months | +1.21% | +0.78% |
| Before next earnings | −0.65% | −0.90% |
After a gap down in a calm market WMT typically gives the move back heading into the next earnings. When the VIX is elevated at the time of the initial earnings, performance into the next earnings tends to be about the same.
The forward return calculations in this article begin at the 9:30am open that morning after the stock has already gapped down, so the gap is not part of the forward calculations.
TradeIntel’s Earnings Analyzer shows the historical gap and what followed it, report by report, for any stock you are watching.
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