August yearly lows have occurred only 7 other times since 1990
VIX traded down to 14.39 on August 12, 2026, marking its lowest reading of the year. Since 1990, it has set a new yearly low during August on 7 other occasions.
| Signal date | VIX that day | SPX rest of year | SPX deepest drawdown rest of year | Highest VIX close rest of year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 1991 | 14.73 | +7.1% | −5.6% | 21.9 |
| Aug 4, 2000 | 18.62 | −9.8% | −16.8% | 31.7 |
| Aug 21, 2003 | 17.84 | +10.8% | −4.2% | 22.7 |
| Aug 13, 2012 | 13.70 | +1.6% | −7.7% | 22.7 |
| Aug 5, 2015 | 12.51 | −2.7% | −11.2% | 40.7 |
| Aug 5, 2016 | 11.39 | +2.6% | −4.8% | 22.5 |
| Aug 12, 2025 | 14.73 | +6.2% | −5.1% | 26.4 |
5 of the 7 ended the year higher, with a median gain of 2.6% over the rest of the year. Measured from mid-August the median gain for a typical year is much higher at 6.4%.
Even though the size of the gain was smaller, the drawdowns were no worse than usual, with a median deepest decline of 5.6% against 6.0% for a typical year.
All 7 years saw VIX close above 20 again at some point before year-end. The median highest close was 22.7.
That looks like a warning until you compare it to a typical year. From mid-August, the median highest VIX close is 26.9, and 15 of 36 years produced a close above 30. These 7 years actually had milder peaks than average.
| Measure | The 7 August-low years | All 36 years since 1990 |
|---|---|---|
| SPX returns rest of year | +2.6% | +6.4% |
| SPX closed higher | 5 of 7 (71%) | 27 of 36 (75%) |
| SPX deepest drawdown | −16.8% | −42.2% |
| Highest VIX close | 40.7 | 80.9 |
| Years with a VIX close above 20 | 7 of 7 (100%) | 29 of 36 (81%) |
| Years with a VIX close above 25 | 3 of 7 (43%) | 20 of 36 (56%) |
| Years with a VIX close above 30 | 2 of 7 (29%) | 15 of 36 (42%) |
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