Reality Check
August 30, 2026

The Odds of an SPX Drawdown at Every VIX Level

Every VIX close since 2006, and how much the S&P 500 fell in the five days after

We took the closing VIX on all 5,026 sessions since 2006, rounded each one down to a whole number, and measured how often the S&P 500 saw drawdowns within a week at various VIX levels.

SPX drawdowns within 5 trading days (1 calendar week)
VIX-1%-2%-3%-4%-5%-6%-7%-8%-9%-10%
3168%54%40%30%22%18%8%4%2%2%
3073%58%35%23%19%12%6%4%2%2%
2959%41%22%15%13%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%
2864%52%38%22%11%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%
2771%50%32%21%15%8%5%2%<1%<1%
2663%47%32%22%11%4%3%1%1%<1%
2563%44%29%20%12%8%5%5%3%1%
2463%41%27%14%8%6%5%3%2%1%
2361%41%21%15%8%7%4%3%3%1%
2264%38%23%13%7%3%2%2%2%2%
2161%37%26%13%6%4%2%1%1%1%
2053%28%16%9%5%1%1%<1%<1%<1%
1957%30%16%7%3%1%1%1%<1%<1%
1857%28%14%7%3%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
1748%28%14%6%3%1%1%1%<1%<1%
1647%27%10%5%2%1%1%<1%<1%<1%
1547%25%11%5%2%1%1%1%1%1%
1442%19%7%2%1%1%1%1%<1%<1%
1336%13%4%2%1%1%1%1%<1%<1%
1239%12%5%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
1123%7%2%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%
1030%4%3%3%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%

The odds of a drawdown fall fast as VIX falls

That is the main takeaway here: the lower the VIX, the lower the odds of drawdown.

For example: a 3% S&P 500 drawdown within a week.

In other words, the S&P is 9 times more likely to have a 3% drawdown when VIX is at 30 than it is when VIX is at 13.

See where VIX sits in its own range today

This tool measures what VIX does once it enters a selected range.

Open the VIX Range Analyzer

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