It has happened 23 times since 1950, and three months later the S&P 500 was more often lower.
Closing back above the 200-day moving average is treated as a milestone. The same is true for the 50-day. We wanted to know what happens when the S&P 500 clears both on the same session, and whether the combined signal is stronger than either condition alone. The test covers every S&P 500 daily close since 1950, a total of 19,263 sessions.
A cross above a moving average occurs when the previous close sat below the moving average and the next day closed above it. A same-day double cross requires both conditions at once: the prior close was below both averages and the new close cleared both.
By that definition the event has happened 23 times in 76 years, or roughly once every three and a half years. For scale, over the same span the index crossed above its 50-day 591 times and above its 200-day 224 times.
| Date | SPX Close | 50-Day Avg | 200-Day Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 1956 | 46.98 | 46.62 | 46.90 |
| Oct 27, 1959 | 57.42 | 57.41 | 57.34 |
| Aug 12, 1960 | 56.66 | 56.41 | 56.53 |
| Aug 16, 1971 | 98.76 | 98.25 | 96.34 |
| Oct 3, 1975 | 85.95 | 85.49 | 84.47 |
| Dec 1, 1976 | 102.49 | 102.38 | 102.39 |
| Dec 3, 1976 | 102.76 | 102.17 | 102.40 |
| Mar 8, 1979 | 99.58 | 98.73 | 99.08 |
| Jan 4, 1984 | 166.78 | 164.84 | 164.19 |
| Jan 24, 1984 | 165.94 | 165.80 | 165.24 |
| Nov 20, 1986 | 242.05 | 237.98 | 238.32 |
| Oct 11, 1994 | 465.79 | 464.50 | 460.62 |
| Oct 6, 1999 | 1,325.40 | 1,322.71 | 1,307.74 |
| Oct 28, 1999 | 1,342.44 | 1,314.79 | 1,312.27 |
| Oct 27, 2004 | 1,125.40 | 1,113.81 | 1,119.37 |
| Dec 24, 2007 | 1,496.45 | 1,485.54 | 1,488.77 |
| Jun 24, 2009 | 900.94 | 900.54 | 897.20 |
| Dec 16, 2015 | 2,073.07 | 2,060.62 | 2,062.33 |
| Dec 23, 2015 | 2,064.29 | 2,063.15 | 2,061.50 |
| Dec 29, 2015 | 2,078.36 | 2,066.04 | 2,061.48 |
| Dec 3, 2018 | 2,790.37 | 2,772.26 | 2,762.17 |
| Jan 20, 2023 | 3,972.61 | 3,928.98 | 3,968.87 |
| Apr 8, 2026 | 6,782.81 | 6,768.27 | 6,655.00 |
Here is the median forward return for each version of the signal. The double cross is the least bullish signal in all three timelines.
Three months later, the double cross is the only one still in the red at −1.13%, against +2.69% for a random day. The 200-day cross on its own more than doubled the market’s usual three-month gain, at +4.43%.
The share that closed higher confirms the same result.
| Signal | Sample Size | % Higher 1 Month Later | % Higher 3 Months Later | % Higher 6 Months Later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crossed both, same day | 23 | 57% | 39% | 55% |
| Crossed the 50-day only | 568 | 66% | 65% | 68% |
| Crossed the 200-day only | 201 | 71% | 71% | 67% |
| Any day, baseline | 19,063 | 62% | 67% | 70% |
Clearing both averages in one session is only possible when the 50-day and the 200-day sit close enough together for a single day’s move to cross above both. That is a demanding condition, and it only appears in weak markets.
Crossing both the 50-day and the 200-day on the same day sounds like two confirmations stacked together. In reality it is closer to a single condition: the two averages can only be cleared on the same day when they have already moved close to each other, and that only happens after the market has gone nowhere for months.
The 23 times this has occurred since 1950 underperformed a randomly chosen day at one, three, and six months.
The version that actually works is a plain 200-day cross when the 50-day is already sitting well above it. That setup beat randomly timed entries.
TradeIntel’s Moving Averages tool shows where price sits against its 50-day and 200-day, and what has historically followed from each position.
Open the Moving Averages Tool
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