Reality Check
July 9, 2026

SPX Reaches Its 0DTE Gamma Walls on Three of Every Four Trading Days

A 90-day study of call and put wall touches shows the open strongly predicts which wall gets hit.

Each trading day, the SPX options expiring that same session create a dealer gamma map.

Net gamma at each strike is calculated by combining call and put gamma. Two levels stand out from this map: the strike with the largest positive net gamma, known as the call wall, and the strike with the most negative net gamma, known as the put wall.

We wanted to answer a simpler question: how often does the S&P 500 actually reach them during the session?

We analyzed all 90 trading days from February 27 through July 8, 2026. Each day’s walls were calculated using only that session’s expiring contracts. Because the gamma map is built from open interest established overnight, both wall levels are known before the open.

A touch was recorded when the regular-session high reached the call wall or the regular-session low reached the put wall.

These were never trivial distances. On the average day the call wall sat 0.74% above the prior close and the put wall sat 0.82% below it, so a touch required a real intraday push.

SPX vs. its same-day (0DTE) gamma walls over the 90 trading days from February 27 through July 8, 2026. A touch means the regular-session high reached the call wall or the regular-session low reached the put wall.
OutcomeDaysRate
Call wall touched41 of 9045.6%
Put wall touched39 of 9043.3%
At least one wall touched69 of 9076.7%
Exactly one wall touched58 of 9064.4%
Both walls touched11 of 9012.2%
Neither wall touched21 of 9023.3%

SPX reached its call wall on 41 of the 90 days (45.6%) and its put wall on 39 days (43.3%).

When counting either side, at least one wall was touched on 69 days, or 76.7% of the sample.

Reaching both walls on the same day was uncommon, occurring on just 11 days (12.2%), while 21 days (23.3%) saw price remain between the two levels for the entire session.

This means that on roughly three out of every four trading days, the session’s range extended to at least one of the gamma walls identified from the prior night’s options positioning. These figures represent the unconditional base rate before applying any filters such as opening direction.

Results Split by Green or Red Open

When the 90 days are split by the direction of the opening print, the results shift noticeably. There were 50 days on which SPX opened above the prior close and 40 days on which it opened below. No sessions opened flat.

The same 90 days split by the opening print vs. the prior close: 50 green opens, 40 red opens.
OutcomeGreen Open (50 days)Red Open (40 days)
Call wall touched62.0% (31 of 50)25.0% (10 of 40)
Put wall touched28.0% (14 of 50)62.5% (25 of 40)
At least one wall touched76.0% (38 of 50)77.5% (31 of 40)
Both walls touched14.0% (7 of 50)10.0% (4 of 40)
Neither wall touched24.0% (12 of 50)22.5% (9 of 40)

The mirror is almost perfect. Open green, and the call wall was touched 62.0% of the time while the put wall was reached on only 28.0% of those days. Open red, and the numbers flip: the put wall was hit 62.5% of the time and the call wall just 25.0%.

What the open does not change is whether any wall gets reached at all: 76.0% on green opens, 77.5% on red opens, both right on the overall base rate. The open picked the target while the odds of reaching some target held steady.

Part of this is mechanical. A green open starts the session closer to the call wall, so less ground remains to cover. But that is also what makes the split usable: by 9:30 you know which wall is the live one. Historically the wall on the side of the opening gap was reached about 62% of the time, while the far wall dropped to roughly a quarter.

Most Wall Touches Occur in the First Hour

The distribution is heavily front-loaded. Of the 80 total wall touches across the 90 days (41 call-wall and 39 put-wall touches), 46 made first contact between 9:30 and 10:30 a.m. That accounts for 57.5% of all touches in the study.

Hour of first contact for every wall touch in the study (41 call-wall touches, 39 put-wall touches). A touch is assigned to the hourly session bar that first reached the wall.
Time Window (ET)Call WallPut WallAll TouchesShare
9:30 to 10:30am21254657.5%
10:30 to 11:30am661215.0%
11:30am to 12:30pm63911.3%
12:30 to 1:30pm3367.5%
1:30 to 2:30pm3145.0%
2:30 to 3:30pm1122.5%
3:30 to 4:00pm1011.3%

Put-wall touches occurred earlier than call-wall touches. In the first hour, 64.1% of put-wall touches took place, compared with 51.2% of call-wall touches. By 12:30 p.m., 83.8% of all eventual wall touches for the day had already occurred. The afternoon contributed very little: only 3.7% of first touches happened after 2:30 p.m., and just one touch in the entire study first occurred in the final half hour.

This narrows the practical window considerably. If a wall has not been reached by lunch, the historical record suggests it is unlikely to happen later as fewer than one in six first touches occurred after 12:30 p.m.

The Full 90-Day Log

SPX regular-session prices vs. same-day (0DTE) gamma walls, February 27 through July 8, 2026. Walls are the strikes with the largest positive and most negative net dealer gamma among the options expiring that session.
DateOpenHighLowCall WallTouchedPut WallTouched
Feb 276856.546882.966831.7469006800
Mar 26824.366901.016796.8569006800
Mar 36800.266840.056710.4269006700
Mar 46831.696885.946811.6469006800
Mar 56851.086870.436770.7869006800
Mar 66769.036773.426711.5669006700
Mar 96699.806810.446636.0468306650
Mar 106796.566845.086759.7468506750
Mar 116790.096811.156745.5968556775
Mar 126740.886740.886670.4068006650
Mar 136673.496733.306623.9267906700
Mar 166674.376729.796674.3767506600
Mar 176722.356754.306710.8067706680
Mar 186697.166705.186621.6667906700
Mar 196583.126636.746557.8267106600
Mar 206594.666594.666473.5266556540
Mar 236574.966651.626565.5566006400
Mar 246552.096595.756525.1167006500
Mar 256598.356633.946568.4166556580
Mar 266555.866573.226473.7966506500
Mar 276453.896453.896356.0866006400
Mar 306403.376427.316316.9165006400
Mar 316395.886539.056395.8864256475
Apr 16556.566609.676554.2966006450
Apr 26512.616601.916474.9465706500
Apr 66587.666618.136579.7266006500
Apr 76601.936618.266534.5566056550
Apr 86754.366793.506740.2867756550
Apr 96783.696835.316761.5567406725
Apr 106839.246845.776808.4668506765
Apr 136806.476887.006790.0268006750
Apr 146910.206969.426905.1769506800
Apr 156978.177026.246967.1370006900
Apr 167037.787051.237008.5270307015
Apr 177074.557147.527074.5571006995
Apr 207117.057122.657084.4171307115
Apr 217122.647137.277050.2071507050
Apr 227102.917138.647102.9171507000
Apr 237118.807147.787046.5571307090
Apr 247136.487168.597112.8271507030
Apr 277152.727178.747146.7271707100
Apr 287133.747152.527115.1772007125
Apr 297131.617145.637107.8672007060
Apr 307161.757219.837126.1572007095
May 17234.547272.527229.3272807185
May 47228.387244.547174.1272757175
May 57233.627273.267233.6272507125
May 67294.147369.227294.1473507220
May 77376.787385.027321.2573757345
May 87362.977401.507362.9774007270
May 117385.317428.977384.2074007300
May 127390.637409.577338.5474157370
May 137409.127460.047375.1374007350
May 147454.407517.127454.4075257390
May 157445.117454.857397.5075007335
May 187415.077434.067353.1774607400
May 197375.757395.327333.6874107330
May 207369.197435.697357.4674157315
May 217410.787465.967389.4874407350
May 227468.827506.327463.2975007370
May 267511.797539.097501.1075007465
May 277526.017530.727499.7275307450
May 287519.827568.727508.0475307475
May 297579.337599.387563.5576007540
Jun 17582.297617.667562.6175907550
Jun 27595.407620.907582.9976207570
Jun 37605.317605.357551.2276257590
Jun 47516.547598.197516.5476007530
Jun 57537.367541.817368.6376007530
Jun 87440.577466.817395.1374607400
Jun 97438.667483.157237.8575007400
Jun 107350.547396.567265.9375257355
Jun 117287.677412.687257.3374007325
Jun 127410.857456.407363.0174507370
Jun 157516.757577.927516.7575507210
Jun 167548.787564.967508.6876007530
Jun 177524.507532.177402.6175707525
Jun 187487.367511.077468.3274307400
Jun 227500.447530.017460.0175507475
Jun 237366.517424.177347.6075257400
Jun 247370.887428.067336.8274207300
Jun 257404.917419.087323.5074257320
Jun 267312.747392.957294.1874107225
Jun 297391.887444.327348.8874257350
Jun 307441.277508.297438.0474507400
Jul 17478.847521.817449.6375407450
Jul 27495.147540.757427.5575507400
Jul 67506.967551.317500.9775207430
Jul 77516.637536.067478.6376157500
Jul 87476.547488.517421.8275257450

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