Weekly MACD Crosses Offer Almost No Edge

The MACD crossover is one of the most widely watched trend signals. When the MACD line crosses above its signal line, the reading is a shift toward bullish momentum. When it crosses below, bearish. On a weekly chart the cross carries extra weight, because a weekly signal is meant to mark a turn in the larger trend rather than a few days of movement.

We tested what actually happens next: every weekly MACD cross on the S&P 500 from 1970 through July 2026, and the return of the week that followed.

How we tested it

The MACD line is the gap between a 12-period and a 26-period average of price. The signal line is a 9-period average of that gap. We ran the standard 12/26/9 settings on weekly closing prices. A bullish cross is the week the MACD line finishes above its signal line after sitting below it. A bearish cross is the reverse.

For each cross we recorded the following week’s close-to-close return and whether that week finished green.

The sample holds 2,917 weekly bars: 126 bullish crosses and 127 bearish, or roughly one cross every twelve weeks. The last bearish cross fell on the final bar in the sample and has no following week yet, so the table below measures 126 of each.

Every weekly MACD cross on the S&P 500, 1970 through July 2026, and the week that followed. The bottom row is every week in the sample.

Signal	Crosses	Next Week Avg	Next Week Green
Bullish cross	126	+0.20%	57.9%
Bearish cross	126	+0.33%	56.3%
All weeks	2,916	+0.18%	57.1%

A bullish cross was followed by a green week 57.9 percent of the time. A week picked at random was green 57.1 percent of the time. The cross is worth eight tenths of a percentage point.

The bearish cross does not mark weakness

The more revealing number sits on the other side. A bearish cross, the version meant to warn you, was followed by an average week of +0.33 percent. That is higher than the +0.20 percent after a bullish cross, and higher than the +0.18 percent baseline.

Its green rate of 56.3 percent lands under a percentage point below the all-week average. The week after a weekly sell signal looks like any other week.

A small bullish edge four weeks out

Stretching the horizon to four weeks leaves the averages where they were, but it does move the green rate.

The same crosses measured four weeks forward instead of one. The bottom row is every week in the sample.

Signal	Crosses	Next 4 Weeks Avg	Next 4 Weeks Green
Bullish cross	126	+0.74%	66.7%
Bearish cross	126	+0.72%	60.3%
All weeks	2,913	+0.72%	61.0%

The three averages are the same number. Over four weeks a bullish cross returned +0.74 percent and a bearish cross +0.72 percent, against a +0.72 percent baseline.

The green rate is where a small edge shows up. Bullish crosses finished the four weeks higher 66.7 percent of the time against a 61.0 percent baseline, close to six points. Bearish crosses sit on the baseline at 60.3 percent.

Why it comes out flat

MACD measures the distance between two moving averages, which makes it a lagging construction by design. By the time a weekly cross confirms, the move that pulled the averages apart has already printed.

What it is good for

The weekly MACD cross describes where trend has already been, and that has some value as context on a chart. What the record does not support is using it to position for the week ahead, in either direction.