Week of July 4th: S&P 500 Historical Returns

The week of July 4th has a long-standing reputation of having light holiday volume with a tendency to drift higher. We tested that view against 20 years of S&P 500 data, measuring close-to-close returns for the Monday-to-Friday week containing the holiday.

The pattern holds, even though a couple of rough summers do a lot of damage pulling the average down.

Twenty years, year by year

S&P 500 July 4th week returns, 2006 to 2025.

Table View: Click Year or Return to sort.

S&P 500 close-to-close returns for the Monday-to-Friday week containing July 4th, 2006 to 2025.

Year	Week (Mon–Fri)	Days	Return
2006	Jul 3 – Jul 7	4	-0.37%
2007	Jul 2 – Jul 6	4	+1.80%
2008	Jun 30 – Jul 4	4	-1.21%
2009	Jun 29 – Jul 3	4	-2.45%
2010	Jun 28 – Jul 2	5	-5.03%
2011	Jul 4 – Jul 8	4	+0.31%
2012	Jul 2 – Jul 6	4	-0.55%
2013	Jul 1 – Jul 5	4	+1.59%
2014	Jun 30 – Jul 4	4	+1.25%
2015	Jun 29 – Jul 3	4	-1.18%
2016	Jul 4 – Jul 8	4	+1.28%
2017	Jul 3 – Jul 7	4	+0.07%
2018	Jul 2 – Jul 6	4	+1.52%
2019	Jul 1 – Jul 5	4	+1.65%
2020	Jun 29 – Jul 3	4	+4.02%
2021	Jun 28 – Jul 2	5	+1.67%
2022	Jul 4 – Jul 8	4	+1.94%
2023	Jul 3 – Jul 7	4	-1.16%
2024	Jul 1 – Jul 5	4	+1.95%
2025	Jun 30 – Jul 4	4	+1.72%

The record leans green

Thirteen of the twenty holiday weeks closed higher, a 65% positive rate. The median return was +1.26%. The average return was lower at +0.44%, largely because two years dragged the mean down: -5.03% in 2010 and -2.45% in 2009. Removing those two outliers lifts the average and makes the upward lean more consistent.

The most recent decade has been stronger. From 2016 through 2025 the holiday week averaged +1.47% and finished positive in nine of ten years. The only decline in that stretch was -1.16% in 2023.