Most of the S&P 500’s Daily Range Is Set by Late Morning
SPX 0DTE Traders often sense that the S&P 500 does most of its meaningful movement early in the session and then quiets down. We tested this idea using six years of data across 1,469 trading days from July 2020 through June 2026. By measuring the high-to-low range at every 15-minute interval, we found that the majority of the day’s range is typically established well before noon.
By 11:00 AM, the S&P 500 has already covered about 56% of its eventual daily range on average. By 1:00 PM, that figure rises to roughly 76%. On the median day, the full high-to-low range is locked in by around 3:15 PM, with the final 45 minutes adding little to no new extremes.
This pattern is consistent: the steepest expansion of the range occurs in the first 60 to 90 minutes after the open, followed by a long period of consolidation within that established range for the rest of the afternoon.
It’s important to distinguish between range and movement. Range refers to the total distance between the day’s high and low. Movement refers to the total distance price travels, including every up and down along the way.
By 11:00 AM, the S&P has typically covered over half its range but only about 31% of its total movement. This means price continues to fluctuate in the afternoon, but it largely stays within the boundaries set earlier in the day. The market sketches out its territory in the morning and spends the rest of the session moving inside it.
| By this time | Range covered (avg) | Total movement |
|---|---|---|
| 9:30a | 0% | 0% |
| 9:45a | 19% | 6% |
| 10:00a | 30% | 12% |
| 10:15a | 39% | 17% |
| 10:30a | 46% | 22% |
| 10:45a | 51% | 27% |
| 11:00a | 56% | 31% |
| 11:15a | 59% | 35% |
| 11:30a | 62% | 38% |
| 11:45a | 65% | 42% |
| 12:00p | 68% | 45% |
| 12:15p | 70% | 49% |
| 12:30p | 72% | 52% |
| 12:45p | 74% | 55% |
| 1:00p | 76% | 58% |
| 1:15p | 78% | 61% |
| 1:30p | 80% | 65% |
| 1:45p | 82% | 68% |
| 2:00p | 83% | 71% |
| 2:15p | 85% | 74% |
| 2:30p | 87% | 77% |
| 2:45p | 89% | 81% |
| 3:00p | 91% | 84% |
| 3:15p | 93% | 88% |
| 3:30p | 95% | 91% |
| 3:45p | 96% | 95% |
| 4:00p | 100% | 100% |
These figures represent averages across thousands of sessions. Individual days can vary significantly, especially during high-impact news events or major economic releases. Additionally, because we used 15-minute snapshots, the true high or low of the day may occasionally fall between intervals, meaning the actual percentages could be slightly higher than shown.
The overall shape of the curve, however, remains consistent: strong range expansion in the morning followed by a much quieter afternoon.
There's no need to memorize any of this. Our SPX 0DTE tool does all the calculations for you in real time, matching the live 15-minute checkpoint and VIX level to similar past days.
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