Every comparable gap since 2007, and what followed.
SMCI reported fiscal Q4 2026 earnings after the close on 11 August 2026, and the stock opened 10.73% higher the next morning. VIX was at 15.28 that evening, so this happened in a calm market.
This is nothing unusual because SMCI gaps up after earnings more often than not. It's gapped up 44 times out of 78 earnings reports since May 2007.
The size of the gap was well above average. A gap up of 10.73% vs its average gap up of +6.45%.
| Time Frame | Gap +10.73% or better (9) | Any gap up (43) |
|---|---|---|
| Same day | +3.69% | +1.11% |
| 1 day | +6.77% | +1.33% |
| 1 week | +1.78% | +1.58% |
| 2 weeks | +2.63% | +3.95% |
| 1 month | +13.43% | +4.34% |
| 2 months | +13.84% | +6.33% |
| 3 months | +16.05% | +12.22% |
| Before next earnings | +18.16% | +8.79% |
After any gap up, SMCI is higher at every time frame, up 12.22% at 3 months. The 9 gaps this size or bigger were positive at every time frame.
| Gap Session | Gap | VIX | 1 Week | 1 Month | 3 Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-01-27 | +12.14% | 24.6 | −4.84% | +15.28% | +16.05% |
| 2014-04-23 | +15.62% | 13.2 | −7.07% | −5.93% | +17.57% |
| 2020-11-04 | +15.77% | 35.5 | +6.07% | +13.99% | +18.91% |
| 2021-11-03 | +11.74% | 16.0 | +5.82% | +4.40% | −5.07% |
| 2022-05-04 | +11.77% | 29.3 | +2.13% | +13.43% | +22.37% |
| 2023-05-03 | +11.08% | 17.8 | +15.76% | +91.33% | +176.91% |
| 2025-02-26 | +20.82% | 19.4 | −29.30% | −36.90% | −23.74% |
| 2026-02-04 | +11.05% | 18.0 | −2.76% | −4.98% | +5.19% |
| 2026-05-06 | +12.97% | 17.4 | +1.78% | +32.44% | −6.55% |
3 of the 9 came with VIX above 20. The calmest of them, April 2014 at 13.2, rose 17.57% over the following 3 months.
| Time Frame | Gap up, VIX < 20 (26) | Gap up, VIX ≥ 20 (17) |
|---|---|---|
| Same day | +0.16% | +6.34% |
| 1 day | +0.35% | +6.62% |
| 1 week | +0.61% | +1.99% |
| 2 weeks | +2.02% | +5.37% |
| 1 month | +2.50% | +6.30% |
| 2 months | +3.92% | +7.47% |
| 3 months | +5.14% | +13.88% |
| Before next earnings | +3.52% | +12.55% |
A gap up in a calm market typically continues climbing higher heading into the next earnings. When the VIX is elevated at the time of the initial earnings, performance into the next earnings tends to be noticeably stronger.
TradeIntel’s Earnings Analyzer shows the historical gap and what followed it, report by report, for any stock you are watching.
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