EDZ just gave back 75% of its 53% spike.

EDZ spiked 53% off its all-time low and has now given back 75% of that move.

• the all-time-low was $13.06 on Jun 22, 2026.
• the peak was $20.00 on Jul 29, 2026 (26 sessions after the ATL).
• and the pullback reached 75% on Aug 13, 2026 (11 sessions after the peak).

This has happened 12 times before, and each of those 12 instances obviously ended the same way: a new all-time low. The only variables have been the time required to reach that low and the size of the bounces along the way.

13 occurrences since 2009 (1 still ongoing)

The path to new all time lows is not a straight line

Across the 12 finished cycles the ETF produced an average of 2.4 bounces of 10% or more after giving back 75%. The median size of the largest bounce was 50.0%. These bounces are measured from new lower lows in each cycle so each one is a distinct bounce rather than a continuation of the same move.

The cycle that began at the February 16, 2021 all-time low is the extreme case. It gave back 75% of the spike on January 18, 2023, then bounced four separate times, and the largest of those reached 55.8% before it finally made a new all-time low.

The cycle that began at the January 2, 2013 all-time low is the opposite extreme. It gave back 75% of the spike on September 6, 2013, and a new low arrived only 8 sessions later, with no bounce of 10% or more along the way.

Is now a good time to short?

Currently, EDZ gave back 75% of its 53% spike on August 13, 2026.

Half of the 12 previous spike cycles of similar spike size and pullback made a new all-time low within a median of 44.5 sessions. Putting the next all-time low somewhere in mid-October 2026.

However, the quickest got there in 8 sessions, which would be August 25, 2026, and the slowest took 425, which would be April 21, 2028.