Every comparable gap since 2017, and what followed.
SE reported fiscal Q2 2026 earnings before the open on 11 August 2026, and the stock opened 11.39% higher that morning. VIX was at 15.46 the evening before, so this happened in a calm market.
This is nothing unusual because SE gaps up after earnings more often than not. It's gapped up 25 times out of 36 earnings reports since October 2017.
The size of the gap was slightly above average. A gap up of 11.39% vs its average gap up of +9.05%.
| Time Frame | Gap +11.39% or better (7) | Any gap up (23) |
|---|---|---|
| Same day | +2.04% | +1.39% |
| 1 day | −0.91% | +1.73% |
| 1 week | +2.58% | +3.77% |
| 2 weeks | +4.63% | +4.00% |
| 1 month | +9.56% | +7.07% |
| 2 months | +10.70% | +10.70% |
| 3 months | +19.93% | +16.09% |
| Before next earnings | +16.94% | +15.88% |
After any gap up, SE is higher at every time frame, up 16.09% at 3 months. The 7 gaps this size or bigger returned a median of +19.93% after 3 months.
| Gap Session | Gap | VIX | 1 Week | 1 Month | 3 Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-02-27 | +14.88% | 15.2 | +22.94% | +26.44% | +52.23% |
| 2019-05-22 | +21.58% | 14.9 | −8.10% | +11.60% | +3.30% |
| 2019-11-12 | +16.39% | 12.7 | +2.58% | +3.38% | +32.90% |
| 2022-05-17 | +12.75% | 27.5 | −10.04% | −12.95% | −8.59% |
| 2022-11-15 | +21.67% | 23.7 | −3.90% | +9.56% | +19.93% |
| 2024-11-12 | +12.41% | 15.0 | +3.77% | +7.07% | +23.19% |
| 2025-08-12 | +13.86% | 16.3 | +7.66% | +18.02% | −6.88% |
2 of the 7 came with VIX above 20. The calmest of them, November 2019 at 12.7, rose 32.90% over the following 3 months.
| Time Frame | Gap up, VIX < 20 (14) | Gap up, VIX ≥ 20 (9) |
|---|---|---|
| Same day | +1.64% | +1.15% |
| 1 day | +0.56% | +3.44% |
| 1 week | +4.85% | −2.13% |
| 2 weeks | +4.31% | +0.57% |
| 1 month | +8.94% | +3.13% |
| 2 months | +9.65% | +11.35% |
| 3 months | +14.53% | +27.04% |
| Before next earnings | +13.92% | +20.42% |
A gap up in a calm market typically continues climbing higher heading into the next earnings. When the VIX is elevated at the time of the initial earnings, performance into the next earnings tends to be noticeably stronger.
TradeIntel’s Earnings Analyzer shows the historical gap and what followed it, report by report, for any stock you are watching.
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