Every comparable gap since 1996, and what followed.
ORCL reported fiscal Q1 earnings after the close on September 10, 2026, and the stock gapped up +7.51% the next morning. VIX was at 17.84 that evening, so this happened in a low VIX environment.
In general, ORCL gaps up after earnings 55.3% of the time (68 times out of 123 earnings reports since March 1996).
The size of the gap was slightly above average. It gapped up 7.51% vs its average gap up of +5.44%.
| Time Frame | Any gap up | Green/Red Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | −0.99% | ▲43.3% / ▼56.7% |
| 1 month | +2.89% | ▲59.7% / ▼40.3% |
| 3 months | −0.23% | ▲47.8% / ▼52.2% |
| Before next earnings | +0.69% | ▲53.7% / ▼46.3% |
After any gap up, ORCL swings between −0.99% and +2.89% over the first month and ends lower by a median return of 0.23% after 3 months.
| Gap Session | Gap | VIX | 1 Week | 1 Month | 3 Months | Before next earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 15, 2000 | +7.05% | 24.9 | +8.28% | +14.86% | −51.17% | −50.11% |
| December 13, 2004 | +7.00% | 12.8 | −4.43% | −5.14% | −7.46% | −12.10% |
| December 20, 2007 | +8.04% | 21.7 | +2.41% | −8.11% | −6.02% | −6.64% |
| December 18, 2014 | +6.49% | 19.4 | +5.18% | −0.78% | +0.96% | −2.19% |
| March 16, 2017 | +7.76% | 11.6 | −3.10% | −4.53% | −3.69% | −0.13% |
| June 20, 2019 | +6.26% | 14.3 | +1.41% | +2.89% | −4.66% | +0.55% |
| June 12, 2024 | +8.73% | 12.8 | +6.10% | +6.22% | +19.82% | +3.86% |
| June 12, 2025 | +7.70% | 17.3 | +8.01% | +23.69% | +53.81% | +27.14% |
| Time Frame | Gap up, VIX < 20 | Green/Red Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | −0.76% | ▲45.5% / ▼54.5% |
| 1 month | +2.89% | ▲60.6% / ▼39.4% |
| 3 months | −1.44% | ▲48.5% / ▼51.5% |
| Before next earnings | +1.38% | ▲60.6% / ▼39.4% |
After a gap up in a low VIX environment ORCL typically continues climbing higher heading into the next earnings.
The forward return calculations in this article begin at the 9:30am open the next morning after the stock has already gapped up, so the gap is not part of the forward calculations.
TradeIntel’s Earnings Analyzer shows the historical gap and what followed it, report by report, for any stock you are watching.
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