Every comparable gap since 1999, and what followed.
NVDA reported fiscal Q2 earnings after the close on August 26, 2026, and the stock gapped up +6.16% the next morning. VIX was at 15.21 that evening, so this happened in a low VIX environment.
In general, NVDA gaps up after earnings 61.8% of the time (68 times out of 110 earnings reports since May 1999) so this wasn’t unexpected.
The size of the gap was about average. A gap up of 6.16% vs its average gap up of +5.67%.
| Time Frame | Any gap up | Green/Red Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | +0.58% | ▲52.2% / ▼47.8% |
| 1 month | +3.29% | ▲61.2% / ▼38.8% |
| 3 months | +9.18% | ▲67.2% / ▼32.8% |
| Before next earnings | +10.98% | ▲67.2% / ▼32.8% |
After any gap up, NVDA is higher at every time frame, ending higher by a median return of 9.18% after 3 months.
| Gap Session | Gap | VIX | 1 Week | 1 Month | 3 Months | Before next earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 12, 2005 | +5.86% | 12.4 | −2.37% | +10.51% | +12.00% | +16.29% |
| February 17, 2006 | +7.37% | 11.5 | −6.25% | +0.21% | −3.98% | +12.36% |
| May 11, 2007 | +5.39% | 13.6 | +1.25% | +4.94% | +27.18% | +33.36% |
| August 7, 2009 | +5.43% | 25.7 | −2.98% | +12.26% | −11.31% | −11.31% |
| November 6, 2009 | +6.29% | 25.4 | +3.99% | +17.42% | +23.16% | +36.81% |
| February 12, 2015 | +5.71% | 17.0 | +1.55% | +4.40% | −3.24% | +2.24% |
| February 15, 2019 | +5.45% | 16.2 | −2.61% | +7.83% | −3.94% | −1.70% |
| August 16, 2019 | +7.11% | 21.2 | +1.94% | +13.63% | +31.65% | +31.65% |
| February 14, 2020 | +6.09% | 14.2 | −4.87% | −24.37% | +18.23% | +22.19% |
| August 24, 2023 | +6.58% | 16.0 | −1.71% | −15.92% | −2.99% | −0.54% |
| May 29, 2025 | +5.52% | 19.3 | −1.59% | +11.07% | +26.66% | +27.66% |
| November 20, 2025 | +5.06% | 23.7 | −9.67% | −6.26% | −1.58% | −0.20% |
The 12 comparable gaps had an average return of 14.07% higher by the next earnings.
| Time Frame | Gap up, VIX < 20 | Green/Red Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | −0.11% | ▲50.0% / ▼50.0% |
| 1 month | +1.32% | ▲60.0% / ▼40.0% |
| 3 months | +7.49% | ▲65.0% / ▼35.0% |
| Before next earnings | +8.67% | ▲65.0% / ▼35.0% |
After a gap up in a low VIX environment NVDA typically moves higher heading into the next earnings.
The forward return calculations in this article begin at the 9:30am open the next morning after the stock has already gapped up, so the gap is not part of the forward calculations.
TradeIntel’s Earnings Analyzer shows the historical gap and what followed it, report by report, for any stock you are watching.
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