Every comparable gap since 2000, and what followed.
MRVL reported fiscal Q2 earnings after the close on August 27, 2026, and the stock gapped down −6.69% the next morning. VIX was at 14.51 that evening, so this happened in a low VIX environment.
In general, MRVL gaps down after earnings 45.7% of the time (48 times out of 105 earnings reports since August 2000) so this wasn’t unexpected.
The size of the gap was slightly above average. It gapped down 6.69% vs its average gap down of −4.68%.
| Time Frame | Any gap down | Green/Red Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | −0.48% | ▲42.6% / ▼57.4% |
| 1 month | −1.97% | ▲40.4% / ▼59.6% |
| 3 months | −1.70% | ▲44.7% / ▼55.3% |
| Before next earnings | −1.70% | ▲48.9% / ▼51.1% |
After any gap down, MRVL tends to chop sideways and go nowhere until next earnings.
| Gap Session | Gap | VIX | 1 Week | 1 Month | 3 Months | Before next earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 22, 2002 | −5.47% | 23.8 | 0.00% | −16.74% | −16.83% | −15.22% |
| November 28, 2007 | −7.45% | 26.3 | −0.06% | −9.09% | −26.61% | −25.24% |
| March 7, 2008 | −6.60% | 27.6 | +4.74% | +2.42% | +58.46% | +30.86% |
| March 4, 2021 | −5.49% | 26.7 | +7.52% | +18.60% | +9.57% | +12.10% |
| December 2, 2022 | −7.49% | 19.8 | −1.19% | −12.83% | −2.12% | +10.07% |
| December 1, 2023 | −6.30% | 12.9 | +1.26% | +8.69% | +50.77% | +62.95% |
The 6 comparable gaps had a median return of 11.09% higher by the next earnings.
| Time Frame | Gap down, VIX < 20 | Green/Red Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | −0.61% | ▲46.9% / ▼53.1% |
| 1 month | −2.83% | ▲37.5% / ▼62.5% |
| 3 months | −2.16% | ▲40.6% / ▼59.4% |
| Before next earnings | −1.98% | ▲43.8% / ▼56.3% |
After a gap down in a low VIX environment MRVL typically gives the move back heading into the next earnings.
The forward return calculations in this article begin at the 9:30am open the next morning after the stock has already gapped down, so the gap is not part of the forward calculations.
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