Most of the damage comes from a handful of years between 1962 and 1974
Social media is buzzing about how 2026 is a midterm election year, and midterm years average a peak-to-trough drop of about 17.5%. Therefore, prepare for one.
The number is real. Taking every calendar year since 1950 and measuring the worst close-to-close decline inside it, the 19 midterm years average a decline of 17.5%, with a median of 16.6%. Nobody is making that part up.
The other 57 years since 1950 have only averaged a decline of 12.4%.
| Group | Years | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midterm years | 19 | -17.5% | -16.6% |
| Every other year | 57 | -12.4% | -9.9% |
The main problem with comparing the 17.5% average midterm decline to the 12.4% non-midterm average is that the midterm years from 1962 to 1974 dominate that figure. Most of the declines pulling the average higher happened more than 45 years ago.
| Year | Worst decline | Year’s return |
|---|---|---|
| 1950 | -14.0% | +22.6% |
| 1954 | -4.4% | +44.2% |
| 1958 | -4.4% | +36.9% |
| 1962 | -26.4% | -11.1% |
| 1966 | -22.2% | -12.9% |
| 1970 | -25.9% | -0.9% |
| 1974 | -37.6% | -29.8% |
| 1978 | -13.6% | +2.4% |
| 1982 | -16.6% | +14.6% |
| 1986 | -9.4% | +15.5% |
| 1990 | -19.9% | -8.2% |
| 1994 | -8.9% | -1.3% |
| 1998 | -19.3% | +26.1% |
| 2002 | -33.8% | -23.8% |
| 2006 | -7.7% | +11.8% |
| 2010 | -16.0% | +11.0% |
| 2014 | -7.4% | +12.4% |
| 2018 | -19.8% | -7.0% |
| 2022 | -25.4% | -20.0% |
5 of those 6 largest mid-term declines fell during periods that included a credit crunch, the Vietnam war, the end of Bretton Woods, the oil embargo and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Whatever those years had in common, it was not the congressional calendar.
Since 1980 there have been 11 midterm years, and only 2 of them declined 20% or more. The average across those 11 is 16.7%, compared with 13.3% for every other year in the same period. The gap narrows while the sample gets smaller.
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