Reality Check
September 4, 2026

LULU Gapped Down 19.36% on Q2 Earnings

Every comparable gap since 2007, and what followed.

LULU reported fiscal Q2 earnings after the close on September 3, 2026, and the stock gapped down −19.36% the next morning. VIX was at 14.32 that evening, so this happened in a low VIX environment.

In general, LULU gaps down after earnings 46.8% of the time (36 times out of 77 earnings reports since September 2007).

The size of the gap was well above average. It gapped down 19.36% vs its average gap down of −8.36%.

Forward returns - After Any Gap Down

What follows LULU's earnings gap downs
LULU earnings gap downs from September 2007 to September 2026.
Time FrameAny gap downGreen/Red Frequency
1 week−1.80%▲45.7% / ▼54.3%
1 month+1.81%▲54.3% / ▼45.7%
3 months−3.70%▲48.6% / ▼51.4%
Before next earnings+0.84%▲51.4% / ▼48.6%

After any gap down, LULU goes nowhere over the first month and then falls away, ending lower by a median return of 3.70% after 3 months.

Forward returns - After Comparable Gap Downs

Gap SessionGapVIX1 Week1 Month3 MonthsBefore next earnings
December 11, 2008−21.51%55.7−4.63%−18.03%−26.80%−6.58%
December 1, 2011−15.61%27.8+9.35%+12.14%+64.09%+76.61%
June 12, 2014−15.96%11.6+8.17%+4.41%+17.46%+3.12%
March 30, 2017−21.58%11.4−2.33%−0.77%+13.68%−6.39%
June 6, 2025−18.02%18.5−11.83%−13.01%−38.01%−24.00%
September 5, 2025−19.87%15.3−3.19%+5.44%+11.18%+13.24%

Forward returns - After Gap Downs in Comparable VIX Regimes

Time FrameGap down, VIX < 20Green/Red Frequency
1 week−1.44%▲44.4% / ▼55.6%
1 month+2.88%▲55.6% / ▼44.4%
3 months−4.40%▲50.0% / ▼50.0%
Before next earnings−0.28%▲50.0% / ▼50.0%

After a gap down in a low VIX environment LULU typically ends about where it opened heading into the next earnings.

The forward return calculations in this article begin at the 9:30am open the next morning after the stock has already gapped down, so the gap is not part of the forward calculations.

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