Every comparable gap since 2007, and what followed.
LULU reported fiscal Q2 earnings after the close on September 3, 2026, and the stock gapped down −19.36% the next morning. VIX was at 14.32 that evening, so this happened in a low VIX environment.
In general, LULU gaps down after earnings 46.8% of the time (36 times out of 77 earnings reports since September 2007).
The size of the gap was well above average. It gapped down 19.36% vs its average gap down of −8.36%.
| Time Frame | Any gap down | Green/Red Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | −1.80% | ▲45.7% / ▼54.3% |
| 1 month | +1.81% | ▲54.3% / ▼45.7% |
| 3 months | −3.70% | ▲48.6% / ▼51.4% |
| Before next earnings | +0.84% | ▲51.4% / ▼48.6% |
After any gap down, LULU goes nowhere over the first month and then falls away, ending lower by a median return of 3.70% after 3 months.
| Gap Session | Gap | VIX | 1 Week | 1 Month | 3 Months | Before next earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 11, 2008 | −21.51% | 55.7 | −4.63% | −18.03% | −26.80% | −6.58% |
| December 1, 2011 | −15.61% | 27.8 | +9.35% | +12.14% | +64.09% | +76.61% |
| June 12, 2014 | −15.96% | 11.6 | +8.17% | +4.41% | +17.46% | +3.12% |
| March 30, 2017 | −21.58% | 11.4 | −2.33% | −0.77% | +13.68% | −6.39% |
| June 6, 2025 | −18.02% | 18.5 | −11.83% | −13.01% | −38.01% | −24.00% |
| September 5, 2025 | −19.87% | 15.3 | −3.19% | +5.44% | +11.18% | +13.24% |
| Time Frame | Gap down, VIX < 20 | Green/Red Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | −1.44% | ▲44.4% / ▼55.6% |
| 1 month | +2.88% | ▲55.6% / ▼44.4% |
| 3 months | −4.40% | ▲50.0% / ▼50.0% |
| Before next earnings | −0.28% | ▲50.0% / ▼50.0% |
After a gap down in a low VIX environment LULU typically ends about where it opened heading into the next earnings.
The forward return calculations in this article begin at the 9:30am open the next morning after the stock has already gapped down, so the gap is not part of the forward calculations.
TradeIntel’s Earnings Analyzer shows the historical gap and what followed it, report by report, for any stock you are watching.
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