Goldman Sachs Earnings Gaps: 88% Win Rate Over 30 Days

Goldman Sachs gapped up 3.74% on its earnings reaction this morning. Taking today's gap as the bar, there have been only eight occasions since 2008 where GS opened at least that far above the prior close on earnings.

In seven of those eight, the stock was trading higher 30 days later. The average 30 day gain was +9.59%, with a median of +11.10%.

Every forward return below excludes the opening gap itself. These are the moves that were still available to someone buying after the gap had already happened.

Average GS return after a post-earnings gap up of 3.74% or more, across the eight instances since 2008. The drift builds with the horizon.

The gap day itself is a coin flip

The reaction day tells you very little. GS closed higher than it opened on only 4 of the 8 gap days. The other four faded from the open, giving back part of the pop.

The follow through showed up later. Of the four gap days that closed red, three went on to finish higher 30 days out. Buying the fade was rewarded more often than punished, at least in this handful of cases.

Every instance since 2008

Goldman Sachs earnings gap ups of 3.74% or more, 2008 to 2026, sorted by the size of the gap. Gap day is the open to close move on the reaction day. The 5, 10, and 30 day columns are measured after the gap and exclude the opening gap itself. The highlighted row is the only instance that was lower 30 days later.

Date	Earnings gap	Gap day (O→C)	5 days	10 days	30 days	Next earnings
Mar 18, 2008	+9.23%	+6.44%	+6.38%	+7.22%	+16.01%	+10.38%
Oct 18, 2022	+4.88%	-2.43%	+3.34%	+8.37%	+20.05%	+16.27%
Jul 15, 2020	+4.84%	-3.33%	-8.19%	-9.71%	-7.64%	-9.52%
Dec 16, 2008	+4.68%	+9.24%	+8.09%	+21.30%	+16.04%	+78.71%
Jan 15, 2025	+4.63%	+1.32%	+6.94%	+7.98%	+4.06%	-17.32%
Apr 15, 2024	+4.50%	-1.50%	+2.54%	+5.85%	+12.98%	+17.91%
Jul 18, 2022	+4.05%	-1.47%	+6.00%	+8.61%	+9.21%	+0.31%
Jan 16, 2019	+3.94%	+5.39%	+5.78%	+5.89%	+5.99%	+11.14%

Summary by horizon

All figures exclude the opening gap. The gap day row is the open to close move on the reaction day itself.

Horizon	Closed higher	Average	Median
Gap day (open to close)	4 of 8 (50%)	+1.71%	-0.08%
5 days	7 of 8 (88%)	+3.86%	+5.89%
10 days	7 of 8 (88%)	+6.94%	+7.60%
30 days	7 of 8 (88%)	+9.59%	+11.10%

A note on the sample size

Keep in mind that 7 out of 8 is a small sample, though there is no way to collect a large one with earnings, since they only happen once a quarter. One additional loss would take the hit rate to 7 of 9 (78%), and two would take it to 7 of 10 (70%).

The single loss, July 2020, came during the pandemic recovery, when the initial pop faded within days and kept going. That one instance alone drags the average down by roughly two percentage points.