We tested all 191 of them, from the 10-day to the 200-day.
A moving average is supposed to act as support. We tested every single moving average on the S&P 500 from 1970 onward, from the 10-day to the 200-day. That is 191 moving averages across 14,256 sessions.
Price didn't bounce from any of them reliably. The median bounce rate from all 191 moving averages was 51.8%. A coin flip is 50%.
Touches within 5 sessions of each other were defined as the same touch. Without that filter, a slow drift along the 20-day would register as dozens of separate bounces.
| Moving average | Times touched | Held (no close 2% below within 20 sessions) | Higher 5 sessions later |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day | 696 | 48.7% | 57.7% |
| 50-day | 423 | 48.7% | 55.5% |
| 100-day | 298 | 53.7% | 57.7% |
| 150-day | 226 | 48.2% | 58.0% |
| 200-day | 166 | 51.2% | 60.2% |
The 20-day was touched 696 times and the 200-day only 166 times. That reason is that the SPX drifts higher over time so its price spends most of its time near the 20-day and only rarely reaches the 200-day.
The best result was the 74-day moving average, which held 56.4% of the time across 346 touches.
As expected, the next-best results came from the nearby moving averages because the 74-day shares 91% of its touch dates with the 73-day and 75-day, and the entire 72-to-77 band held between 55.4% and 56.4% of the time.
The worst ones were the 158 through 166 moving averages , all held between 46% and 48%.
The S&P 500 closes higher five sessions later 56.5% of the time on any randomly selected day. After touching a moving average the rate ranged from 53.0% to 60.5%. The best was the 90-day moving average which closed higher one week later 60.5% of the time.
View all 191 below, from the 10-day to the 200-day.
| Moving average | Times touched | Held (no close 2% below within 20 sessions) | Higher 5 sessions later |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-day | 901 | 53.9% | 55.5% |
| 11-day | 889 | 52.1% | 56.4% |
| 12-day | 865 | 51.4% | 58.3% |
| 13-day | 830 | 49.5% | 58.3% |
| 14-day | 790 | 48.9% | 56.5% |
| 15-day | 776 | 49.1% | 57.4% |
| 16-day | 765 | 48.8% | 57.3% |
| 17-day | 745 | 49.1% | 58.1% |
| 18-day | 729 | 48.0% | 58.7% |
| 19-day | 714 | 48.5% | 57.5% |
| 20-day | 696 | 48.7% | 57.7% |
| 21-day | 676 | 48.2% | 58.2% |
| 22-day | 651 | 48.5% | 58.0% |
| 23-day | 639 | 49.0% | 57.1% |
| 24-day | 627 | 49.0% | 57.5% |
| 25-day | 619 | 49.4% | 57.8% |
| 26-day | 621 | 49.9% | 58.1% |
| 27-day | 612 | 49.5% | 58.6% |
| 28-day | 597 | 49.9% | 57.6% |
| 29-day | 580 | 50.5% | 57.0% |
| 30-day | 569 | 49.9% | 57.4% |
| 31-day | 558 | 50.4% | 56.9% |
| 32-day | 534 | 50.2% | 55.2% |
| 33-day | 536 | 49.6% | 55.1% |
| 34-day | 525 | 48.2% | 54.4% |
| 35-day | 520 | 47.5% | 54.1% |
| 36-day | 515 | 47.8% | 53.7% |
| 37-day | 504 | 47.6% | 54.3% |
| 38-day | 494 | 48.1% | 53.8% |
| 39-day | 487 | 48.2% | 53.5% |
| 40-day | 494 | 48.3% | 55.0% |
| 41-day | 479 | 48.5% | 56.1% |
| 42-day | 472 | 48.2% | 55.8% |
| 43-day | 465 | 48.9% | 56.0% |
| 44-day | 451 | 48.7% | 56.0% |
| 45-day | 446 | 48.3% | 55.7% |
| 46-day | 437 | 47.7% | 57.1% |
| 47-day | 441 | 47.5% | 57.7% |
| 48-day | 434 | 47.3% | 58.2% |
| 49-day | 431 | 47.7% | 56.5% |
| 50-day | 423 | 48.7% | 55.5% |
| 51-day | 429 | 50.1% | 55.8% |
| 52-day | 424 | 50.5% | 56.3% |
| 53-day | 426 | 51.2% | 57.9% |
| 54-day | 418 | 51.9% | 58.8% |
| 55-day | 418 | 51.0% | 58.5% |
| 56-day | 416 | 51.7% | 59.0% |
| 57-day | 418 | 52.4% | 58.8% |
| 58-day | 407 | 52.1% | 58.2% |
| 59-day | 401 | 52.1% | 58.4% |
| 60-day | 396 | 51.5% | 56.8% |
| 61-day | 390 | 52.6% | 55.9% |
| 62-day | 394 | 53.0% | 56.9% |
| 63-day | 392 | 53.8% | 57.9% |
| 64-day | 389 | 53.7% | 57.3% |
| 65-day | 380 | 53.2% | 59.5% |
| 66-day | 373 | 53.6% | 57.9% |
| 67-day | 366 | 53.8% | 58.5% |
| 68-day | 368 | 53.8% | 57.9% |
| 69-day | 363 | 54.3% | 57.3% |
| 70-day | 362 | 53.0% | 57.2% |
| 71-day | 364 | 54.9% | 57.4% |
| 72-day | 361 | 55.4% | 58.7% |
| 73-day | 361 | 55.7% | 59.3% |
| 74-day | 346 | 56.4% | 59.0% |
| 75-day | 338 | 56.2% | 57.4% |
| 76-day | 337 | 56.1% | 59.1% |
| 77-day | 341 | 55.7% | 59.2% |
| 78-day | 341 | 55.4% | 59.5% |
| 79-day | 335 | 55.2% | 59.1% |
| 80-day | 335 | 54.6% | 58.8% |
| 81-day | 332 | 55.7% | 58.4% |
| 82-day | 331 | 54.4% | 59.5% |
| 83-day | 324 | 54.3% | 59.0% |
| 84-day | 321 | 54.2% | 59.2% |
| 85-day | 321 | 54.5% | 59.5% |
| 86-day | 313 | 53.4% | 58.5% |
| 87-day | 309 | 52.8% | 58.6% |
| 88-day | 310 | 51.9% | 60.3% |
| 89-day | 315 | 53.0% | 60.0% |
| 90-day | 309 | 53.1% | 60.5% |
| 91-day | 310 | 53.5% | 60.0% |
| 92-day | 305 | 53.1% | 59.0% |
| 93-day | 304 | 52.6% | 59.2% |
| 94-day | 305 | 51.8% | 58.4% |
| 95-day | 300 | 53.0% | 58.3% |
| 96-day | 295 | 53.2% | 57.3% |
| 97-day | 293 | 52.6% | 56.3% |
| 98-day | 289 | 52.2% | 56.7% |
| 99-day | 295 | 52.2% | 56.9% |
| 100-day | 298 | 53.7% | 57.7% |
| 101-day | 292 | 53.4% | 58.2% |
| 102-day | 291 | 53.6% | 57.7% |
| 103-day | 286 | 53.5% | 57.3% |
| 104-day | 282 | 52.8% | 57.1% |
| 105-day | 275 | 53.5% | 57.5% |
| 106-day | 274 | 52.6% | 58.4% |
| 107-day | 275 | 52.0% | 58.2% |
| 108-day | 274 | 51.1% | 57.7% |
| 109-day | 271 | 52.0% | 57.2% |
| 110-day | 277 | 52.7% | 57.0% |
| 111-day | 268 | 53.7% | 56.0% |
| 112-day | 268 | 53.7% | 55.2% |
| 113-day | 268 | 53.4% | 55.2% |
| 114-day | 271 | 53.1% | 57.2% |
| 115-day | 267 | 53.2% | 57.7% |
| 116-day | 264 | 52.7% | 58.0% |
| 117-day | 262 | 53.4% | 57.6% |
| 118-day | 261 | 53.6% | 57.5% |
| 119-day | 257 | 54.1% | 56.8% |
| 120-day | 253 | 53.8% | 55.7% |
| 121-day | 250 | 53.6% | 56.0% |
| 122-day | 246 | 52.8% | 56.5% |
| 123-day | 248 | 52.4% | 56.0% |
| 124-day | 252 | 52.4% | 56.0% |
| 125-day | 250 | 52.0% | 55.6% |
| 126-day | 255 | 51.8% | 56.1% |
| 127-day | 253 | 52.2% | 56.5% |
| 128-day | 252 | 53.2% | 57.1% |
| 129-day | 247 | 53.0% | 56.7% |
| 130-day | 246 | 52.8% | 56.9% |
| 131-day | 246 | 53.3% | 58.1% |
| 132-day | 249 | 53.0% | 59.0% |
| 133-day | 248 | 54.0% | 58.9% |
| 134-day | 252 | 54.0% | 59.1% |
| 135-day | 252 | 54.8% | 59.5% |
| 136-day | 249 | 53.8% | 58.6% |
| 137-day | 249 | 53.0% | 58.2% |
| 138-day | 245 | 51.4% | 56.7% |
| 139-day | 243 | 53.1% | 57.2% |
| 140-day | 236 | 53.0% | 58.1% |
| 141-day | 234 | 52.1% | 57.3% |
| 142-day | 236 | 53.0% | 57.6% |
| 143-day | 236 | 53.4% | 58.1% |
| 144-day | 237 | 52.7% | 56.5% |
| 145-day | 234 | 51.3% | 56.4% |
| 146-day | 232 | 50.9% | 57.3% |
| 147-day | 227 | 49.8% | 58.1% |
| 148-day | 228 | 50.9% | 58.8% |
| 149-day | 226 | 49.1% | 58.4% |
| 150-day | 226 | 48.2% | 58.0% |
| 151-day | 223 | 48.9% | 56.1% |
| 152-day | 223 | 49.3% | 56.5% |
| 153-day | 213 | 48.8% | 56.3% |
| 154-day | 214 | 49.1% | 55.6% |
| 155-day | 212 | 48.1% | 54.7% |
| 156-day | 205 | 47.8% | 53.7% |
| 157-day | 204 | 47.5% | 54.4% |
| 158-day | 201 | 46.3% | 54.2% |
| 159-day | 200 | 46.5% | 53.0% |
| 160-day | 200 | 46.5% | 54.5% |
| 161-day | 199 | 46.7% | 56.3% |
| 162-day | 195 | 46.2% | 55.9% |
| 163-day | 195 | 47.2% | 56.4% |
| 164-day | 192 | 47.4% | 56.3% |
| 165-day | 185 | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| 166-day | 187 | 47.1% | 55.1% |
| 167-day | 189 | 48.1% | 55.0% |
| 168-day | 187 | 48.7% | 55.1% |
| 169-day | 187 | 48.7% | 55.6% |
| 170-day | 189 | 49.2% | 55.6% |
| 171-day | 188 | 50.0% | 55.9% |
| 172-day | 192 | 51.6% | 57.8% |
| 173-day | 190 | 51.1% | 56.3% |
| 174-day | 194 | 51.5% | 56.2% |
| 175-day | 191 | 50.8% | 56.0% |
| 176-day | 188 | 50.0% | 56.4% |
| 177-day | 190 | 50.5% | 57.4% |
| 178-day | 191 | 51.3% | 57.6% |
| 179-day | 189 | 51.3% | 58.2% |
| 180-day | 186 | 50.5% | 58.1% |
| 181-day | 184 | 51.1% | 57.1% |
| 182-day | 182 | 51.1% | 58.8% |
| 183-day | 179 | 49.7% | 57.0% |
| 184-day | 175 | 50.3% | 57.1% |
| 185-day | 174 | 51.1% | 56.3% |
| 186-day | 174 | 51.7% | 56.9% |
| 187-day | 172 | 52.3% | 58.1% |
| 188-day | 171 | 52.6% | 57.9% |
| 189-day | 168 | 54.2% | 58.3% |
| 190-day | 165 | 52.7% | 57.0% |
| 191-day | 168 | 53.0% | 57.1% |
| 192-day | 166 | 51.8% | 57.8% |
| 193-day | 167 | 52.1% | 58.1% |
| 194-day | 165 | 51.5% | 58.8% |
| 195-day | 162 | 51.9% | 58.6% |
| 196-day | 164 | 51.2% | 59.1% |
| 197-day | 167 | 52.1% | 58.7% |
| 198-day | 169 | 51.5% | 59.8% |
| 199-day | 168 | 51.2% | 58.9% |
| 200-day | 166 | 51.2% | 60.2% |
The Moving Averages tool shows how a stock behaves relative to its moving averages.
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