Every comparable gap since 1996, and what followed.
CSCO reported fiscal Q4 2026 earnings after the close on 12 August 2026, and the stock opened 8.04% lower the next morning. VIX was at 14.55 that evening, so this happened in a calm market.
This is nothing unusual because CSCO gaps down after earnings often. It's gapped down 59 times out of 123 earnings reports since January 1996.
The size of the gap was well above average. A gap down of 8.04% vs its average gap down of −4.61%.
| Time Frame | Gap −8.04% or worse (10) | Any gap down (58) |
|---|---|---|
| Same day | −0.97% | −0.58% |
| 1 day | −0.90% | −0.43% |
| 1 week | +1.55% | −0.20% |
| 2 weeks | −0.94% | −0.40% |
| 1 month | −0.99% | +0.70% |
| 2 months | +2.90% | +0.80% |
| 3 months | +2.46% | +2.70% |
| Before next earnings | +6.12% | +3.29% |
After any gap down, CSCO goes nowhere for two months and then recovers, up 2.70% at 3 months. The 10 gaps this size or bigger returned a median of +2.46% after 3 months.
| Gap Session | Gap | VIX | 1 Week | 1 Month | 3 Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-08-11 | −9.09% | 17.5 | +2.10% | +10.00% | +6.18% |
| 2010-08-12 | −9.73% | 25.4 | +3.73% | −0.75% | +14.33% |
| 2010-11-11 | −16.46% | 18.5 | −4.15% | −4.30% | −8.60% |
| 2011-02-10 | −10.84% | 15.9 | −4.94% | −9.16% | −13.84% |
| 2012-05-10 | −8.57% | 20.1 | −3.61% | −4.02% | +3.09% |
| 2013-11-14 | −12.75% | 12.5 | +2.53% | −1.24% | +7.02% |
| 2017-05-18 | −8.04% | 15.6 | +1.09% | +2.86% | −0.19% |
| 2020-08-13 | −8.96% | 22.3 | −3.38% | −7.81% | −10.18% |
| 2022-05-19 | −10.96% | 31.0 | +4.48% | +2.51% | +13.10% |
| 2023-11-16 | −11.02% | 14.2 | +2.00% | +5.97% | +1.84% |
4 of the 10 occurred with VIX above 20. The calmest of them, November 2013 at 12.5, rose 7.02% over the following 3 months.
| Time Frame | Gap down, VIX < 20 (37) | Gap down, VIX ≥ 20 (21) |
|---|---|---|
| Same day | −0.37% | −0.72% |
| 1 day | −0.49% | −0.28% |
| 1 week | −0.20% | +0.41% |
| 2 weeks | −0.19% | −2.52% |
| 1 month | +0.48% | +2.06% |
| 2 months | −0.32% | +3.53% |
| 3 months | +0.68% | +5.67% |
| Before next earnings | +2.88% | +5.67% |
A gap down in a calm market typically works higher heading into the next earnings. When the VIX is elevated at the time of the initial earnings, performance into the next earnings tends to be slightly stronger.
The forward return calculations in this article begin at the 9:30am open the next morning after the stock has already gapped down, so the gap is not part of the forward calculations.
TradeIntel’s Earnings Analyzer shows the historical gap and what followed it, report by report, for any stock you are watching.
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