We priced 4,001 expired option ideas against each contract’s own daily highs. Here is how far they ran.
TradeIntel scans the options market every 30 minutes through the trading day and publishes the contracts with the strongest historical odds of reaching a profit target. Every idea goes out before the outcome is known, and every one is then tracked to expiration. The numbers below include the ideas that did not work.
When our scanner publishes an option idea, that exact contract is recorded the day it fires, at the price it was showing. From then on it is priced every day until it expires, using the contract’s own daily high, low and closing price.
As of August 21, 2026, 4,001 of those long positions have reached expiration. 3,033 were calls and 968 were puts. This is how high each one got.
| Peak reached | Calls (3,033) | % of calls | Puts (968) | % of puts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +50% or better | 2,114 | 69.7% | 523 | 54.0% |
| +75% or better | 1,819 | 60.0% | 420 | 43.4% |
| +100% or better | 1,541 | 50.8% | 318 | 32.9% |
| +200% or better | 806 | 26.6% | 117 | 12.1% |
| +500% or better | 133 | 4.4% | 6 | 0.6% |
| +1000% or better | 32 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0% |
Just under 7 in 10 call ideas traded at a 50% gain or better at some point before expiry. Slightly more than half doubled. 32 of them went up more than tenfold, and the best single contract reached +4,365%.
The two sides were not close. The median call peaked at +102% and the median put at +58%. The gap widens as the target rises: at +200% calls are more than twice as likely to get there, and past +500% the put side almost vanishes. 6 puts out of 968 managed it, against 133 calls, and no put reached +1000% at all.
That is what a rising market does to a long option book. Puts earn their keep in the quarters that fall, and this was not one of them.
A hit rate is only worth something if you can say what it paid. So we ran every call idea through a standing profit target: sell the moment it reaches the target, and if it never gets there, hold it to expiration and take whatever it settles at.
| Profit target | Win rate | Average per position |
|---|---|---|
| Sell at +50% | 71% | +7.0% |
| Sell at +75% | 61% | +8.8% |
| Sell at +100% | 53% | +7.7% |
| Sell at +150% | 41% | +0.3% |
| Sell at +200% | 35% | −1.3% |
A 50% target won 71% of the time. A 75% target won less often but paid more when it did, at +8.8% per position. Past +150% the arithmetic turns: you are waiting for a level most contracts never see, and the ones that do no longer cover the ones that do not.
Three things are worth knowing before anyone reads too much into the table above, and we would rather write them ourselves than have you find them.
The peaks come from each contract’s daily high. An order resting at your target fills when the contract prints there, which is how a target is normally worked, so the measurement matches the method. What it will not tell you is whether a thin contract could have absorbed real size at that price.
The window was a rising one. These ideas were published between June 10 and August 11, 2026. AAPL alone ran from $273.75 to $344.57 inside it. A quarter that falls will not produce this table, and the put column is the proof: it is the same scanner, on the same days, pointed the other way.
Roughly half the ideas from that window are still open. Only positions that have reached expiration can be scored, so the newest ones are not in here yet. We will publish the same table again when they are, whichever way it moves.
Every one of these contracts was published before the outcome was known, recorded automatically, and priced daily against its own market history. That is the only kind of number worth putting in front of you.
Positions are recorded at the mid price shown when the idea fires. Peaks are measured against each contract’s own daily highs.
The same screen that produced every contract in this article. Odds of reaching each profit target, on the contracts qualifying right now.
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