History Says to Sell Calls on AAPL Rallies

AAPL reported fiscal Q3 2026 earnings after the close on 30 July 2026, and the stock opened 8.58% lower the next morning. VIX was at 17.09 that evening, so this happened in a calm market.

AAPL gaps down after earnings often. It has done so 49 times out of 122 since April 1996. What's unusual is the size. Only 6 of those 122 gapped down 8.58% or more.

Forward returns

What follows an AAPL earnings gap down

AAPL earnings gap downs from April 1996 to July 2026.
Return calculations begin at the 9:30am open the next day after the stock has already gapped down, so the gap is not part of the forward calculations.

Time Frame	Gap −8.58% or worse (5)	Any gap down (48)
Same day	−2.07%	−0.31%
1 day	−4.37%	−0.79%
1 week	−2.94%	−0.09%
2 weeks	−5.38%	+0.89%
1 month	−3.74%	+1.00%
2 months	−5.43%	+0.32%
3 months	−11.22%	+3.92%
Before next earnings	−11.71%	+2.47%

An ordinary gap down goes nowhere for two months and then recovers, up 3.92% at 3 months. The 5 gaps this size were negative at every time frame.

The 5 comparable gaps

Every AAPL earnings gap down of 8.58% or more

VIX uses its 4pm close before the stock could react. This is deliberate so the earnings reaction has not yet influenced the VIX.
Return calculations begin at the 9:30am open the next day after the stock has already gapped down, so the gap is not part of the forward calculations.

Gap Session	Gap	VIX	1 Week	1 Month	3 Months
2001-07-18	−13.23%	22.6	−15.20%	−14.37%	−12.68%
2002-07-17	−9.69%	36.6	−5.76%	−3.19%	−6.01%
2008-01-23	−12.50%	31.0	−2.94%	−12.28%	+19.61%
2008-07-22	−10.40%	23.1	+5.42%	+18.01%	−33.93%
2013-01-24	−10.51%	12.5	−0.98%	−3.74%	−11.22%

4 of the 5 came with VIX above 20. The one low-VIX case, January 2013 at 12.5, fell another 11.22% over the following 3 months.

Split by VIX

AAPL earnings gap downs split by VIX regime

VIX uses the last 4pm close before the stock could react, so the earnings reaction is not in it.
Return calculations begin at the 9:30am open the next day after the stock has already gapped down, so the gap is not part of the forward calculations.

Time Frame	Gap down, VIX < 20 (28)	Gap down, VIX ≥ 20 (20)
Same day	+1.06%	−0.68%
1 day	−0.34%	−1.13%
1 week	−0.49%	+0.07%
2 weeks	+0.48%	+1.44%
1 month	+1.49%	−0.23%
2 months	+0.21%	+3.57%
3 months	+6.96%	+0.15%
Before next earnings	+3.10%	+1.15%

A gap down in a calm market chops sideways for two months, and then it jumps up 3.10% before its next earnings. However, when the VIX was high during the initial earnings reports, it fails to move up the same way before its next earnings, managing only 1.15%.

History Says to Sell Calls on AAPL Rallies

Forward returns

The 5 comparable gaps

Split by VIX

See Every Earnings Reaction for Any Ticker

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