How Much Will Your Leveraged ETF Decay in 45 Days? Now You Can See It
Leveraged and inverse volatility ETFs lose value over time. The Decay Projection tool reads a vol ETF's current spike levels and projects the future decay rate.
Leveraged and inverse ETFs decay. UVXY, UVIX, VXX, SQQQ, SOXS, SPXU, BOIL: every one of them leaks value over time because of contango on the underlying futures plus the daily-reset rebalancing math. That part is well known. The harder, more useful question is conditional: this ticker has already spiked +47% off its all-time low. How much of that spike has historically melted off over the next 45 days?
A static "average daily decay rate" can't answer that. The decay you'll experience depends on where in the spike cycle you're entering. UVXY at +5% off its ATL behaves very differently from UVXY at +200%. Decay Projection reads where the ticker is right now, walks the full history for every cycle that started at the same spike level, and shows you the actual distribution of what happened next.
A spike-anchored projection, a 45-day price cone, a Chance of Move bar graph, and an all-ETF comparison table.
The tool reads today's spike off the running all-time low and finds every past cycle that crossed the same level. Decay depends on where in the spike you are.
The projection runs 45 trading days forward: a median path with a 66% inner band and an 80% outer band, anchored to the current price.
Flip to Bar Graph view to see how often price fell or rose by a set percentage over the window, with a By Close and By Touch toggle.
Table view lines up all 14 vol and inverse ETFs: current spike, days since ATL, average and median decay, and probability of being lower.
A consolidated row pairing current and projected price with average return, median return, and the percentage of similar windows that ended lower.
When a ticker sits at its all-time low, the tool falls back to every overlapping 45-day window and relabels the stats so the baseline shift is clear.
Pick a vol or inverse ETF and the cone runs 45 days out from every past cycle that started at today's spike level.
Use the median projected price as the realistic exit instead of guessing a percentage.
The cone's outer band is the tail risk for a short. If the upper band runs positive, some similar spikes rallied further before fading, so size for it.
Open the Table view to compare current spike, days since ATL, and decay across all 14 ETFs, then pick the one that matches your trade.
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