How Much Will Your Leveraged ETF Decay in 45 Days? Now You Can See It
This tool helps traders put current spike levels in leveraged and inverse ETFs into perspective by showing how these products have historically decayed from similar points in their cycles, offering context beyond simple average decay rates.
Leveraged and inverse ETFs, such as those tracking volatility or providing inverse exposure to major indices, are known to lose value over time due to the effects of daily rebalancing and the structure of the futures they hold. This decay is a well-documented characteristic of these products.
However, the rate of decay is not constant. It can vary significantly depending on where the ETF is in its spike cycle. Entering after a small spike can produce a very different decay experience than entering after a large spike. Understanding the likely path forward requires context from how these ETFs have historically performed when they were at comparable points in previous cycles.
Decay rates depend on where you are in the spike cycle. The tool compares the current spike cycle to similar historical patterns and shows how these ETFs have typically decayed from there.
Projects a potential price range over the next 60 days by applying historical forward returns from past similar setups.
Shows how often prices rose or fell after similar setups in the past.
Select an ETF and examine the projected path based on historical cycles that started at a similar point in the spike cycle. This provides a realistic view of potential decay.
Use the median projected path as a guide for a reasonable profit target or exit point. This helps establish expectations grounded in how similar situations have played out historically.
Check the upper boundary of the projection to understand the potential for additional spikes before decay sets in. This helps with position sizing, especially when considering short positions in these products.
Review the current projected decay across different leveraged and inverse ETFs. This allows you to identify which products currently offer the most favorable risk/reward profile for your strategy.
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