Tool Tutorials

Weekly Return Streak Tutorial

Defining a Weekly Return Streak

A Weekly Return Streak is an uninterrupted sequence of trading weeks that all closed in the same direction (consecutively positive or consecutively negative). For any streak in progress, the tool tracks two things:

  1. Length: how many weeks in a row have gone the same direction.
  2. Total return: the compounded percentage move from the first week of the streak through the latest close.
Cumulative Streak Return % = [ ∏ (1 + Rt) − 1 ] × 100the product of (1 + each week's return) across all N weeks, minus 1

Where Rt represents the single-week fractional return on week t.

+ + + the total 3 weeks in the same direction, compounded one flat or opposite week ends the run
The length is how many weeks the run lasted. The total is what those weeks add up to.

Why the engine uses total return, not only length

Two streaks can run the same number of weeks and still be nothing alike:

  • Streak A: +0.5%, +0.8%, +0.7% → +2.0% over 3 weeks.
  • Streak B: +4.2%, +5.1%, +5.0% → +14.97% over 3 weeks.

Both are 3-week streaks. Matching on length alone would treat them as the same event. Adding total return keeps a slow grind from being compared against an explosive run.

Matching criteria

Finding past streaks of the same size and length

The engine looks through the ticker's history for past runs that went the same direction, lasted the same number of weeks, and ended up with a similar total return.

Tool Glossary

The Basics

Streak

An unbroken run of weeks that all closed the same way, either up or down. It ends on the first week that closes flat or the other way.

Direction

Whether the run is up or down. An up streak is only ever compared against past up streaks.

Length

How many weeks in a row have gone the same direction.

Total return

The compounded percentage move from the first week of the streak through the latest close. It is not the weekly moves added up, because each week's move is applied to what the last one left behind.

The Readings

Matched weeks

The past weeks that met the same conditions you set. Every statistic the tool prints is measured from these and nothing else.

Sample

The number of matched occurrences behind a statistic. A 70% hit rate off 8 occurrences and a 70% hit rate off 400 are not the same claim. The sample is printed next to every result for that reason.