A Moving Average (MA) Extension quantifies the stretch between an asset's price action and its baseline trend level. While a moving average simply calculates the arithmetic mean closing price over a specified trailing window, the extension percentage measures the degree to which current price has expanded away from that mean.
MA Extension % = (Price − Moving Average) ÷ Moving Average × 100
Because MU's peak traded $68.89 above its 5-day baseline, the stock registered an 8.56% upside extension.
The 5-day average trails beneath a fast move. The reading is the distance from the candle's high down to that line.
The mechanics of extension gaps
Moving averages are inherently backward-looking indicators. When an asset accelerates rapidly in either direction, the trailing average cannot keep pace with instant price velocity.
Widening gaps: signal that price has traveled a substantial distance within a very short timeframe.
Bi-directional isolation: price can stretch either above (overbought expansion) or below (oversold dislocation) the average. The engine treats these as distinct directional regimes, comparing upside extensions exclusively against historical upside extensions.
Asset-calibrated sample matching
Once a side (above or below) is selected, the platform scans the asset's complete trading history to build a sample of comparable extension events.
MU 8.56% upside extension: yielded 52 matching historical sessions where MU exhibited a comparable degree of 5-day stretch.
Traditional quantitative analysis uses fixed-time frame snapshots (e.g., measuring performance strictly 5 days forward). The First-Move Resolution Engine replaces fixed timeframes with a directional race, asking: which specific price target is hit first?
The race vs. the snapshot
From the close of each matched historical day, the engine tracks forward price movement until the asset hits either a predefined +X% gain or −X% loss.
The trial tracks price from the matched close until it gains or loses the chosen amount. Whichever boundary it reaches first wins the race and the trial ends; everything after that is ignored.
Once either boundary is touched, the trial resolves immediately, and subsequent price action is discarded.
Micron (MU) first-move resolution profile
Measured 22 July 2026, from 52 historical matched days.
Target distance
Up first resolution
Down first resolution
3% target
48%
52%
5% target
40%
60%
10% target
40%
60%
Resolving divergences between odds & races
It is common for single-day probability snapshots and directional races to point in opposite directions without mathematical conflict:
1-day snapshot odds: 58% green (the next day tends to drift quietly higher).
5% first-move race: 60% down first (when a larger 5% move occurs, the downside expansion hits first).
Core Insight
A stretched asset may exhibit mild, positive drift on day one, but possess skewed tail risk toward a rapid downside mean-reversion once real directional volatility expands.
Chapter 3
Price Projections
The engine projects across three fixed time frames: the next trading day, one week (5 trading days) and one month (21 trading days). Every card shows the exact future date it refers to, so there is no ambiguity about which session is being measured.
Three measures on each card
Green / red odds: the split between matched days that closed higher and those that closed lower over that time frame.
Avg green return: the average gain of only the matched days that closed higher.
Avg red return: the average loss of only the matched days that closed lower.
MU's read after an 8.56% extension above its 5-day average:
Time Frame
Target date
Odds
Avg green
Avg red
Next day
23 July 2026
58% / 42%
+2.28%
−4.31%
One week
29 July 2026
38% / 62%
+5.62%
−7.11%
One month
21 August 2026
44% / 56%
+25.48%
−13.12%
Measured on MU, 22 July 2026, from 52 matched days.
Always read the averages next to the odds
The two average rows are one-sided: avg green averages only the up outcomes, avg red only the down outcomes. Never read them by themselves.
The month row splits the two measures. The odds lean red at 56%, yet the average green (+25.48%) is far larger than the average red (−13.12%). More of those months closed lower, but the ones that rose ran a long way. The win rate alone would hide how large the up moves were.
Chapter 4
The Three Charts
A single Chart View toggle lets you look at the same data in three different ways:
1. Price Cone (default view)
This projects what happened after similar setups in the past, starting from today's price. It tracks the next 45 sessions.
The middle line shows the typical path (the median).
The cone around it shows how much the past results varied. A narrow cone means outcomes were fairly consistent. A wide cone means results were all over the place.
2. Bar Graph
This answers a different question: how often did price travel a certain distance, and how fast?
You pick a move size (for example 3%). The chart then shows:
Green bars: how often price rose by the move size within a certain number of days
Red bars: how often price fell by the move size
By Touch vs By Close
Setting
What it measures
Best used for
By Touch
Any time price hit the level during the day, even if it closed back inside
Stops, intraday risk, margin questions
By Close
Only when price actually closed beyond the level
Holding targets, trend strength
Touch numbers are always higher than (or equal to) close numbers. A big gap between them means price often poked the level during the day but failed to hold it by the close.
3. Chart Log
This shows the full price chart with every matched day marked on it, so you can see the bigger picture each time this setup appeared.
Below the chart is a list of every matched day, including the date, how far it sat from the average, and what happened afterward. You can sort any column to quickly find the biggest winners and worst losers. Those extreme cases often matter more than the average when you are deciding position size.
The front page runs the same analysis across every ticker at once, so you can see which names are stretched without opening them one at a time.
Every ticker has a reading
There is no trigger here. Price always sits some distance from its average, so every row carries a number. The question is never whether a ticker qualifies, only how far it has pulled away and in which direction.
The extension column
Distance from 5d MA, signed, so the sign tells you which side of the average the stock is on and the number tells you how far.
Price Projections
The same price projections from Chapter 3 appear here: avg green, avg red, and the odds, shown for next day, next week and next month.
Each figure is calculated from that ticker's own matched days. The numbers are therefore not comparable side to side in the way they look. Two rows both showing 58% are each describing their own stock.
The table opens sorted by distance, most stretched first, whichever side of the average they sit on. Every column sorts, so you can re-rank on any of the projection columns instead.