How This Tool Works

The question it answers

You pick a leveraged ETF and two spike levels, a starting point and a target. The tool tells you how often a spike that reached the first level went on to reach the second.

For example, when UVXY has spiked 20% off its all-time low, how often does it keep going and reach 40%? And how often does it roll over and make a new low instead?

Setting the range

You set two levels, both written as a percentage above the all-time low.

"From". The level the spike starts at.
"To". The target you want it to reach.

By default, "Auto-detect spike" is on and the tool measures the current spike levels. Turn it off to enter your own levels.

What the tool measures

The tool walks through the entire daily history looking for occurrences.

An occurrence starts the first time a session's intraday high reaches your starting spike level. That level is measured against whatever the all-time low was on that particular date.

The tool then moves forward day by day, checking whether any session's high reaches your target level. If one does, that occurrence counts as reached, and the tool notes how many trading days passed between the two.

The probability

Out of every spike that hit your starting level, how many went on to hit your target. On UVXY that's 58 out of 233, or 24.9%.

There are also four numbers showing how long it took: median, average, fastest and slowest. Only the spikes that made it are counted there.

The ladder

Between your two levels the tool prints every whole percentage step. Each bar shows the share of those same occurrences that reached at least that step, so the bars step down as the levels move further from where you started.

Past occurrences

The full log behind the number: the date the spike reached your "From" level, whether it went on to reach the target, and how many days that took.

This is where you can study the raw record yourself.

Open the Spike Probability Ladder

Leveraged ETF Products

Volatility Products

UVXY (ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF)

Underlying Target: Long Volatility (S&P 500 Short-Term VIX Futures Index)
Daily Exposure: 1.5x daily return.
Core Characteristics: Leveraged short-term futures ETF tracking front- and second-month VIX futures contracts.
Primary Behavior: Rapid upward price spikes during sharp equity market downturns, coupled with persistent long-term downward price erosion caused by contango roll decay and daily leverage compounding.

UVIX (2x Long VIX Futures ETF)

Underlying Target: Long Volatility (Long Volatility Futures Index)
Daily Exposure: 2x daily return.
Core Characteristics: Leveraged short-term futures ETF tracking front- and second-month VIX futures contracts.
Primary Behavior: Extreme, rapid upward price movements during broad market shocks, paired with accelerated, steady downward price erosion during flat or rising equity market conditions.

VXX (iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)

Underlying Target: Long Volatility (S&P 500 Short-Term VIX Futures Index)
Daily Exposure: 1x unleveraged daily return.
Core Characteristics: Unsecured debt instrument (ETN) tracking front- and second-month VIX futures contracts without leverage.
Primary Behavior: Sharp upward price spikes during severe stock market declines, accompanied by relentless long-term price decay driven by structural contango in the VIX futures curve.

Inverse Equity Products

SQQQ (ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ)

Underlying Target: Inverse Tech / Nasdaq-100
Daily Exposure: -3x (3x inverse) daily return of the Nasdaq-100 Index.
Core Characteristics: Uses swaps and futures contracts to reflect three times the inverse daily price change of large-cap tech equities.
Primary Behavior: Large price gains during single-day or short-term drops in tech equities; compounding drag causes significant value loss over extended periods of sideways volatility or upward trends.

SOXS (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares)

Underlying Target: Inverse Semiconductor Sector
Daily Exposure: -3x (3x inverse) daily return of the NYSE Semiconductor Index.
Core Characteristics: Highly concentrated leverage instrument tracking chipmaker and equipment manufacturer stocks inversely.
Primary Behavior: Wide daily price swings inverse to semiconductor stocks, characterized by rapid price drops during industry expansions and path-dependent volatility drag in range-bound markets.

LABD (Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares)

Underlying Target: Inverse Biotechnology Sector
Daily Exposure: -3x (3x inverse) daily return of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index.
Core Characteristics: Inverse leveraged tracking of equal-weighted biotech equities.
Primary Behavior: High intra-day price variance moving inversely to biotech index movements, with severe performance degradation over multi-day periods due to high constituent stock volatility.

SPXU (ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500)

Underlying Target: Inverse Large-Cap US Equities
Daily Exposure: -3x (3x inverse) daily return of the S&P 500 Index.
Core Characteristics: Inverse leveraged product tied directly to the benchmark S&P 500 Index.
Primary Behavior: Inverse alignment with daily S&P 500 price changes, exhibiting cumulative performance loss relative to its 3x inverse target during volatile, non-trending market regimes.

TZA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares)

Underlying Target: Inverse Small-Cap US Equities
Daily Exposure: -3x (3x inverse) daily return of the Russell 2000 Index.
Core Characteristics: Inverse leveraged tracking of small-cap equities.
Primary Behavior: Sharp upward movements during small-cap equity declines, alongside pronounced path-dependent performance drag in fluctuating market environments.

TSLQ (AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF)

Underlying Target: Inverse Single-Stock (Tesla, Inc.)
Daily Exposure: -1x (1x inverse) daily return of Tesla stock.
Core Characteristics: Single-stock inverse ETF reflecting the inverse daily percentage move of TSLA stock.
Primary Behavior: Exact inverse correlation with single-day price movements of TSLA, with holding-period return divergence emerging during periods of high price volatility.

Commodity & Precious Metals Products

BOIL (ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas)

Underlying Target: Leveraged Long Natural Gas Futures
Daily Exposure: 2x daily return of the Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex.
Core Characteristics: Leveraged futures-based ETF tracking Henry Hub natural gas contracts.
Primary Behavior: Violent upward price moves during sudden supply/demand shocks in natural gas, coupled with extreme price erosion when natural gas futures trade in contango.

ZSL (ProShares UltraShort Silver)

Underlying Target: Inverse Leveraged Silver
Daily Exposure: -2x (2x inverse) daily return of silver futures prices.
Core Characteristics: Leveraged inverse exposure to precious metals futures contracts.
Primary Behavior: Price increases corresponding to drops in silver futures, subject to roll yield decay and leverage compounding drag over multi-day periods.

DUST (Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares)

Underlying Target: Inverse Leveraged Gold Mining Equities
Daily Exposure: -2x (2x inverse) daily return of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index.
Core Characteristics: Leveraged inverse exposure to gold mining equities.
Primary Behavior: High price volatility moving inversely to gold mining equities, experiencing rapid structural decay during choppy or range-bound equity price action.

GLL (ProShares UltraShort Gold)

Underlying Target: Inverse Leveraged Gold Futures
Daily Exposure: -2x (2x inverse) daily return of gold futures prices.
Core Characteristics: Leveraged inverse tracking of spot/futures gold prices.
Primary Behavior: Price appreciation during declines in gold futures prices, alongside compounding loss and futures contract rolling drag over extended time frames.

Comparative Summary

Ticker	Asset Class	Direction	Leverage
UVXY	Volatility	Long	1.5x
UVIX	Volatility	Long	2x
VXX	Volatility	Long	1x
SQQQ	Equity (Tech)	Inverse	-3x
SOXS	Equity (Semis)	Inverse	-3x
LABD	Equity (Biotech)	Inverse	-3x
SPXU	Equity (Broad)	Inverse	-3x
TZA	Equity (Small Cap)	Inverse	-3x
TSLQ	Single Stock	Inverse	-1x
BOIL	Commodity	Long	2x
ZSL	Commodity	Inverse	-2x
DUST	Mining Equities	Inverse	-2x
GLL	Commodity	Inverse	-2x

Tool Glossary

The Basics

Leveraged and inverse volatility ETFs

What they are: ETFs that reset their exposure every day to deliver a multiple of an index move. Examples include 1.5x long VIX futures or 3x inverse semiconductors.
Why it matters: That daily reset is what causes these products to bleed lower over time. The long grind down is exactly what puts a meaningful all-time low underneath everything this tool measures.

All-time low

What it is: The lowest price the ETF has ever printed as of that session.
Why it matters: Every reading is measured against the all-time low of the date the tool is measuring, not the lowest price on record today. That is what allows an occurrence from years ago to describe the same conditions as one from last month.

Spike percentage

What it is: How far price sits above the all-time low, expressed as a percentage. A spike of 30% means price is 1.3 times the low.
Why it matters: Both ends of your range are written in it, so the same setting means the same thing on any ETF and in any era.

Your Settings

Starting spike level

What it is: The spike percentage price has to reach before the tool starts watching. This is the "From" stepper in the panel.
Why it matters: It decides which past sessions make it into the sample. Set it low and you catch almost every spike. Set it high and you only keep the big ones.

Target level

What it is: The spike percentage you want to know the odds of reaching. This is the "To" stepper.
Why it matters: The probability is just the share of spikes that got from your starting level up to here.

Auto-detect spike

What it is: The default setting. It pins your starting level to wherever the live spike sits right now.
Why it matters: You get the answer for today without typing anything. Turn it off if you'd rather test a fixed range.

The Results

Occurrence

What it is: One past spike that reached your starting level. Each all-time low can only produce one.
Why it matters: The odds are counted over occurrences. Because a new all-time low resets things, a long stretch of price hanging above your starting level can't flood the sample with duplicates.

Ladder step

What it is: Each whole percentage level between your starting level and your target.
Why it matters: Every step reads the same group of occurrences, which is why the bars only ever fall as the steps get further away.

Days to target

What it is: How long the spikes that reached the target took to get there. Shown as a median, an average, a fastest and a slowest.
Why it matters: The probability tells you how often. This tells you how long you'd have been sitting there waiting.

At a Glance

Readout	What It Measures
Probability	Share of occurrences that reached the target
Median days	The middle wait among the ones that reached it
Shortest	The fastest one on record
Longest	The slowest one on record

Tutorial complete

You answered every question. Final score: 0 / 1

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Spike Probability Ladder Tutorial