Is Your Price Target Realistic, or Wishful?
Set your price target and the Probability Lab tool tells you the exact percentage of historical periods that hit it.
Most traders sell options, set stops, or pick targets on instinct. "SPY won't drop 2% today, that's rare." Maybe. But how rare is rare?
The honest answer needs three things you usually don't have on hand: the historical frequency at that move size, the same number for the actual holding period you're trading (a week of 2% moves is very different from a day of 2% moves), and the same number again filtered to the volatility regime you're in. Calm markets and panicked markets produce completely different probabilities.
Two probability cards, a price target, and a year-by-year breakdown. Every reading filterable by period, VIX regime, moving average, RSI, and Close vs Touch.
The historical frequency the ticker crossed your threshold up or down, plus a live price target for where that move lands today.
Step the threshold up or down and the cards, chart, and note re-read instantly. Set it to 0% for a green-versus-red ratio.
Measure the holding period you actually trade. The odds of a 2% move in a day and in a month are very different reads.
Close counts periods that ended beyond your threshold; Touch counts any that ever reached it intraperiod. Touch for stops, Close for short options.
Narrow the sample to periods that look like today by VIX regime, moving-average side, and RSI. The filters stack.
The same threshold probability broken down by year, up side and down side, so you can see whether tail risk is stable or shifting.
Pick a ticker and step the threshold to your target. The two cards show how often price has crossed it, up and down.
Switch the period to Daily, Weekly, or Monthly and choose Close or Touch, Touch for stops, Close for short options.
Stack the VIX regime, moving-average, and RSI filters to narrow history to periods that look like the one you are in now.
Scan the year-by-year chart to see whether the probability is stable or shifting, so you know whether to trust the long-run average or the recent trend.
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