The Lab
May 19, 2026

Earnings Analyzer

What a Stock Actually Does After It Reports.

The Earnings Analyzer shows what a stock actually does after it reports. For any ticker it pulls the full history of earnings dates, then measures three things on every report: the overnight gap from the prior close to the next open, the gap-day reaction from that open to the close, and the 10-day drift in the days that follow. It is built on SEC 8-K filings, so it covers companies that report before the open or after the close.

Most traders know earnings are a coin flip in the short run, but they treat every report the same. The history says otherwise: some stocks reliably gap up, some round-trip the gap by the closing bell, and some keep drifting in the gap's direction for days. The decision-relevant question is not whether the stock will move, it is how this specific name has tended to behave, because the average reaction across dozens of reports is far more useful than a gut feel about the next one.

A big gap is not automatically a fade and a quiet open is not automatically calm: what tends to happen next depends on the direction of the gap, its size, and whether you are trading the open, the close, or the days after. The tool splits the history by gap up versus gap down and by gap size, and separates the overnight move from the gap-day reaction and the multi-day drift, so you see the pattern that fits the setup in front of you rather than one blended number.

What the Tool Shows You

The overnight earnings gap, the gap-day reaction, the 10-day drift, the gap up rate, and returns split by direction and gap size, for any liquid US ticker.

Curve

Overnight Gap

The move from the prior close to the next open on every earnings date in the history.

Sides

Gap-Day Reaction

How the stock travels from that earnings open to the close, the intraday follow-through.

Skew

10-Day Drift

The forward return in the days after a report, where post-earnings momentum shows up.

Move

Gap Up Rate

How often the stock gaps up on earnings, the base rate before you take a side.

Event

Up vs Down Splits

Returns separated by gap up versus gap down, since the two behave very differently.

Table

By Gap Size

Reactions bucketed by how big the gap was, so a small beat is not lumped with a blowout.

How Traders are using the Earnings Analyzer

1

Check the base rate

Look at the gap up rate to see which way this stock usually reacts before you commit to a direction.

2

Trade the gap or fade it

Compare the overnight gap to the gap-day reaction to see if the stock follows through or round-trips by the close.

3

Hold for the drift

Read the 10-day drift to decide whether post-earnings momentum is worth holding for, or whether the move is done at the open.

4

Match the gap size

Use the gap-size split so a small beat is judged against other small gaps, not lumped in with the blowouts.

See how your stock reacts to earnings today

Open the Earnings Analyzer

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